GREMIO vs AMERICA MINEIRO MG SURE PREDICTION
A detailed Gremio vs America Mineiro Mg sure prediction with expert opinion, H2H matches, statistical analysis for this Brazil, Serie A match on 24-Jul-2021
Gremio
America Mineiro Mg
DATE:
24 July 2021 at 23:00:00
TIME:
11:00 PM
COUNTRY:
Brazil
LEAGUE
Serie A
1X2 PREDICTION
HOME WIN:
62%
AVR. ODDS:
1.81
VALUEBET?
Value Bet
DRAW:
23%
AVR. ODDS:
3.53
VALUEBET?
Not a Value Bet
AWAY WIN:
15%
AVR. ODDS:
4.37
VALUEBET?
Not a Value Bet
EXPERT TIPS FOR THIS MATCH
After analysing all the data and compiling and comparing expert opinions on this Gremio vs America Mineiro Mg match, we are well convinced that Gremio is in better form, better motivated and has proven in the past their ability to dominate this game against America Mineiro Mg. The surebet prediction for this game is therefore a home win. Note that there might be even better tips you can bet on today if you can be bold enough to subscribe for VIP tips. Besides, you might want to check out the GG/NG tips given their ability to increase betting profits for many punters.
We used the 3 main prediction models to find the validity of a home win in this Gremio vs America Mineiro Mg match. The Monte Carlo simulation prediction model indicated a 70.78% probability for a Home Win outcome. The ELO Ratings model came through with a 61.67% probability for the same outccome. The third model, Poisson probabilites prediction model showed there's a 53.43% chance for a home win outcome. This Gremio vs America Mineiro Mg match has a few other bets that have been validated by all the 3 models.
Keep reading to find them all. To find if the Home Win bet is a value bet, we need to compare the implied Home Win bookmaker probability with calculated and validated Surebet probability for the same. The odds for this outcome are averagely 1.81 with an implied bookmaker probability of 55.25%. The calculated Surebet probability for the Home Win outcome for this Gremio vs America Mineiro Mg match is 61.96%, meaning this bet is a value bet. In case you place this bet, you may gain expected value by 6.71%Expected Value, EV(Home Win), for a Home Win result for this Gremio vs America Mineiro Mg match is calculated as follows: Let P(Home Win) be the probability of winning this bet, P(0) be the probability of losing this bet.
Also assuming that your stake is 100 then the Expected value is; P(Home Win) * 100* 1.81 where 1.81 are the decimal odds for this outcome. Using this formula then you should get the expected value for a Home Win for Gremio vs America Mineiro Mg, EV(Home Win) to be 61.96% * 100 * 1.81, which translates to 74.11. This is a positive Expected Value thus further vaidating this bet mathematically.
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GG/NG(BTTS) PREDICTION
GG(BTTS):
38%
AVR. ODDS:
2.06
VALUEBET?
Not a Value Bet
NO GOAL:
62%
AVR. ODDS:
1.68
VALUEBET?
Value Bet
OVER/UNDER 1.5 GOALS PREDICTION
OVER 1.5:
40%
AVR. ODDS:
1.42
VALUEBET?
Not a Value Bet
UNDER 1.5:
33%
AVR. ODDS:
2.93
VALUEBET?
Not a Value Bet
OVER/UNDER 2.5 GOALS PREDICTION
OVER 2.5:
41%
AVR. ODDS:
2.18
VALUEBET?
Not a Value Bet
UNDER 2.5:
59%
AVR. ODDS:
1.61
VALUEBET?
Not a Value Bet
OVER/UNDER 3.5 GOALS PREDICTION
OVER 3.5:
21%
AVR. ODDS:
3.82
VALUEBET?
Not a Value Bet
UNDER 3.5:
79%
AVR. ODDS:
1.2
VALUEBET?
Not a Value Bet
MATCH STATISTICS AND ANALYSIS
GREMIO VS AMERICA MINEIRO MG LATEST HEAD TO HEAD MATCHES
America Fc Mg and Gremio have met 6 times recently since 23/10/11. Below is a breakdown of those matches and the results. Note that these matches will play a big role in the America Fc Mg vs Gremio prediction.
20/10/18 - America FC MG [1 : 1] Gremio
06-Oct-2018 - Gremio [1 : 0] America FC MG
04-Jun-2017 - Gremio [1 : 0] America FC MG
20/11/16 - Gremio [3 : 0] America FC MG
08-Jan-2016 - America FC MG [0 : 0] Gremio
23/10/11 - America FC MG [2 : 2] Gremio
GREMIO LAST 10 MATCHES
Below are Gremio's last 10 matches whose results will be part of the data needed for this game's sure bet prediction:
Gremio lost to LDU Quito (1-2) on 21/07/21
Then Fluminense lost to Gremio (0-1) on 18/07/21
LDU Quito lost to Gremio (0-1) on 14/07/21
Not surprisingly Gremio drew with Internacional (0-0) on 07-Oct-2021
Palmeiras won against Gremio (2-0) on 07-Aug-2021
Gremio lost to Goianiense GO (0-1) on 07-May-2021
Then Juventude RS won against Gremio (2-0) on 07-Jan-2021
Gremio drew with Fortaleza (0-0) on 28/06/21
Gremio drew with Santos (2-2) on 25/06/21
In the earliest match listed here Recife won against Gremio (1-0) on 18/06/21
RECENT MATCHES - AWAY TEAM
Below are America Mineiro Mg's last 10 matches whose results will be part of the data needed for this game's sure bet prediction:
America FC MG lost to Recife (0-1) on 20/07/21
America FC MG lost to Atletico Mineiro (0-1) on 07-Nov-2021
Then Fortaleza won against America FC MG (4-0) on 07-Aug-2021
America FC MG won against Santos (2-0) on 07-Apr-2021
Bahia lost to America FC MG (3-4) on 07-Jan-2021
Then America FC MG drew with Internacional (1-1) on 28/06/21
America FC MG drew with Juventude RS (1-1) on 24/06/21
Palmeiras won against America FC MG (2-1) on 20/06/21
Once more America FC MG drew with Cuiaba (0-0) on 17/06/21
Flamengo won against America FC MG (2-0) on 13/06/21
GREMIO'S POSITION
Gremio is in position 19 with 6 points from 10 matches. They are below who have points and above Chapecoense who have 4 points.
have scored 5 goals and conceded 12 goals thereby accumulating a goal difference of -7 goals this season.
AMERICA MINEIRO MG'S POSITION
America FC MG is in position 18 with 9 points from 12 matches. They are below Recife who have 10 points and above who have points.
America Mineiro Mg have scored 9 goals and conceded 17 goals thereby accumulating a goal difference of -8 goals this season.
GREMIO'S BEST PLAYERS
Sure bet prediction, tips and even fixed matches all depend on the form of players. Below are Gremio's players that have the potential of shaping the predictions and results for this game:
Cesar Pinares - The Chile National Cesar Pinares has scored 1 goals in 1 matches and shot 1 foul kicks. He has scored 1 penalties. The 0.19's average goals per match is 1.
Vanderson - The Brazil National Vanderson has scored 1 goals in 7 matches and shot - foul kicks. He has scored - penalties. The 0.15's average goals per match is 0.14.
Matheus Henrique - The Brazil National Matheus Henrique has scored 1 goals in 8 matches and shot - foul kicks. He has scored - penalties. The 0.33's average goals per match is 0.13.
Diego Souza - The Brazil National Diego Souza has scored 1 goals in 9 matches and shot 1 foul kicks. He has scored - penalties. The forward's average goals per match is 0.11.
Ricardinho - The Brazil National Ricardinho has scored 1 goals in 10 matches and shot - foul kicks. He has scored - penalties. The forward's average goals per match is 0.1.
AMERICA MINEIRO MG'S BEST PLAYERS
The following America Mineiro Mg players are crucial in determining the results of this game:
Ribamar - The Brazil National Ribamar has scored 2 goals in 9 matches and shot 1 foul kicks. He has scored - penalties. The forward's average goals per match is 0.22.
Juninho - The Brazil National Juninho has scored 2 goals in 9 matches and shot - foul kicks. He has scored 1 penalties. The midfielder's average goals per match is 0.22.
Geovane - The Brazil National Geovane has scored 1 goals in 5 matches and shot 1 foul kicks. He has scored - penalties. The midfielder's average goals per match is 0.2.
Carlos Alberto - The Brazil National Carlos Alberto has scored 1 goals in 6 matches and shot - foul kicks. He has scored - penalties. The forward's average goals per match is 0.17.
Joao Paulo - The Brazil National Joao Paulo has scored 1 goals in 8 matches and shot 1 foul kicks. He has scored - penalties. The defender's average goals per match is 0.13.
Juninho - The Brazil National Juninho has scored 1 goals in 11 matches and shot - foul kicks. He has scored - penalties. The midfielder's average goals per match is 0.09.
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