Fluminense vs Santos Prediction

This is a detailed Fluminense vs Santos Prediction, match analysis, betting tips, H2H matches and sure bet tips.

Fluminense

Santos

DATE:

TIME:

1:00:00 AM

COUNTRY:

Brazil

LEAGUE

Serie A

1X2 PREDICTION

HOME WIN:

41.4%

AVR. ODDS:

2.16

VALUEBET?

No

DRAW:

24.4%

AVR. ODDS:

3.14

VALUEBET?

No

AWAY WIN:

33.9%

AVR. ODDS:

3.53

VALUEBET?

Yes

EXPERT TIPS FOR THIS MATCH

All assessed indicators for this Fluminense vs Santos match show that not many goals will be scored in this game. 2 goals might even be on the higher side. An under 2.5 goals prediction is what you should really go with.


Learn how this under 2.5 goals tips form a basis for the best correct score predictions. It is very easy to win correct scores for any match with a verified under 2.5 goals tips.


We used the 3 main prediction models to find the validity of a under 2.5 in this Fluminense vs Santos match.

The Monte Carlo simulation prediction model indicated a 62.00% probability for a UNDER 2.5 outcome. The ELO Ratings model came through with a 58.41% probability for the same outccome. The third model, Poisson probabilites prediction model showed there's a 54.90% chance for a under 2.5 outcome.

This Fluminense vs Santos match has a few other bets that have been validated by all the 3 models. Keep reading to find them all.


To find if the Under 2.5 bet is a value bet, we need to compare the implied UNDER 2.5 bookmaker probability with calculated and validated Surebet probability for the same. The odds for this outcome are averagely 1.62 with an implied bookmaker probability of 61.73%.

The calculated Surebet probability for the Under 2.5 outcome for this Fluminense vs Santos match is 58.44%, meaning this bet is not a value bet. In case you place this bet, you may be about to lose expected value by -3.29%Expected Value, EV(UNDER 2.5), for a UNDER 2.5 result for this Fluminense vs Santos match is calculated as follows:


Let P(UNDER 2.5) be the probability of winning this bet, P(0) be the probability of losing this bet. Also assuming that your stake is 100 then the Expected value is;


P(UNDER 2.5) * 100* 1.62 where 1.62 are the decimal odds for this outcome.


Using this formula then you should get the expected value for a UNDER 2.5 for Fluminense vs Santos, EV(UNDER 2.5) to be 58.44% * 100 * 1.62, which translates to 53.1. This is a positive Expected Value thus further vaidating this bet mathematically.

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GG/NG(BTTS) PREDICTION

GG(BTTS):

58.1%

AVR. ODDS:

1.9

VALUEBET?

Yes

NO GOAL:

41.6%

AVR. ODDS:

1.8

VALUEBET?

No

OVER/UNDER 1.5 GOALS PREDICTION

OVER 1.5:

40%

AVR. ODDS:

1.41

VALUEBET?

Yes

UNDER 1.5:

21.4%

AVR. ODDS:

2.95

VALUEBET?

No

OVER/UNDER 2.5 GOALS PREDICTION

OVER 2.5:

55.6%

AVR. ODDS:

2.16

VALUEBET?

Yes

UNDER 2.5:

44.1%

AVR. ODDS:

1.62

VALUEBET?

No

OVER/UNDER 3.5 GOALS PREDICTION

OVER 3.5:

33.6%

AVR. ODDS:

3.79

VALUEBET?

Yes

UNDER 3.5:

66.1%

AVR. ODDS:

1.21

VALUEBET?

No

MATCH STATISTICS AND ANALYSIS

FLUMINENSE VS SANTOS LATEST HEAD TO HEAD MATCHES

Santos and Fluminense have met 6 times recently since 14/06/18. Below is a breakdown of those matches and the results. Note that these matches will play a big role in the Santos vs Fluminense prediction.
22/02/21 - Santos [1 : 1] Fluminense
25/10/20 - Fluminense [3 : 1] Santos
27/09/19 - Fluminense [1 : 1] Santos
05-Mar-2019 - Santos [2 : 1] Fluminense
27/10/18 - Santos [3 : 0] Fluminense
14/06/18 - Fluminense [0 : 1] Santos

FLUMINENSE LAST 10 MATCHES

Below are Fluminense's last 10 matches whose results will be part of the data needed for this game's sure bet prediction:
Bragantino drew with Fluminense (2-2) on 14/06/21
Then Bragantino won against Fluminense (2-1) on 06-Oct-2021
Fluminense won against Cuiaba (1-0) on 06-Jun-2021
Not surprisingly Fluminense won against Bragantino (2-0) on 06-Mar-2021
Sao Paulo drew with Fluminense (0-0) on 30/05/21
River Plate lost to Fluminense (1-3) on 26/05/21
Then Flamengo won against Fluminense (3-1) on 23/05/21
Fluminense lost to Junior (1-2) on 19/05/21
Fluminense drew with Flamengo (1-1) on 16/05/21
In the earliest match listed here Fluminense won against Independ. Santa Fe (2-1) on 13/05/21

RECENT MATCHES - AWAY TEAM

Below are Santos's last 10 matches whose results will be part of the data needed for this game's sure bet prediction:
Santos drew with Juventude RS (0-0) on 13/06/21
Santos won against Cianorte (1-0) on 06-Aug-2021
Then Santos won against Ceara (3-1) on 06-Jun-2021
Cianorte lost to Santos (0-2) on 06-Feb-2021
Bahia won against Santos (3-0) on 30/05/21
Then Barcelona won against Santos (3-1) on 27/05/21
The Strongest won against Santos (2-1) on 19/05/21
Santos won against Boca Juniors (1-0) on 05-Dec-2021
Once more Santos won against Sao Bento (2-0) on 05-Sep-2021
Palmeiras won against Santos (3-2) on 05-Jul-2021

FLUMINENSE'S POSITION

Fluminense is in position 7 with 5 points from 3 matches. They are below Bragantino who have 5 points and above Bahia who have 4 points.
have scored 3 goals and conceded 2 goals thereby accumulating a goal difference of 1 goals this season.

SANTOS'S POSITION

Santos is in position 12 with 4 points from 3 matches. They are below Ceara who have 4 points and above Internacional who have 4 points.
Santos have scored 3 goals and conceded 4 goals thereby accumulating a goal difference of -1 goals this season.

FLUMINENSE'S BEST PLAYERS

Sure bet prediction, tips and even fixed matches all depend on the form of players. Below are Fluminense's players that have the potential of shaping the predictions and results for this game:

Gabriel Teixeira - The Brazil National Gabriel Teixeira has scored 1 goals in 2 matches and shot 1 foul kicks. He has scored - penalties. The 0.19's average goals per match is 0.5.

Caio Paulista - The Brazil National Caio Paulista has scored 1 goals in 3 matches and shot - foul kicks. He has scored - penalties. The 0.15's average goals per match is 0.33.

Abel Hernandez - The Uruguay National Abel Hernandez has scored 1 goals in 3 matches and shot - foul kicks. He has scored 1 penalties. The 0.33's average goals per match is 0.33.


SANTOS'S BEST PLAYERS

The following Santos players are crucial in determining the results of this game:

Kaio Jorge - The Brazil National Kaio Jorge has scored 1 goals in 3 matches and shot - foul kicks. He has scored - penalties. The forward's average goals per match is 0.33.

Jean Mota - The Brazil National Jean Mota has scored 1 goals in 3 matches and shot 1 foul kicks. He has scored - penalties. The midfielder's average goals per match is 0.33.

Marinho - The Brazil National Marinho has scored 1 goals in 3 matches and shot - foul kicks. He has scored - penalties. The forward's average goals per match is 0.33.




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