Updated: Mar 9
You might have come across many people and companies claiming to offer you sure bet predictions or fixed matches. We all have at some point. Be it on Facebook, Twitter, Whatsapp, Telegram or Instagram you might have seen adverts from very many sources with promises of instant riches using their so-called “fixed matches” or sure tips.
The questions are many. How many of those sites are really true and if so, how does they do it? What is the source of their sure bet predictions? Where do fixed matches come from? Are fixed matches real? Does sure bet predictions exist?
To understand how this industry works is beneficial to you because prospects are very good looking at what other people have made out of it through winning jackpots or large multi-bets. So take a seat and fasten your belt so that I take you into this hole called “Sure Bet Predictions”.
HISTORY OF SURE BET PREDICTIONS
According to Wikipedia, gambling dates back to the Paleolithic period, before written history. In Mesopotamia the earliest six-sided dice date to about 3000 BC. That is over 5000 years ago. Since then, it has become part and parcel of the human beings. Many past and present societies have been involved in gambling or betting of some for the sole reason of making money, although some do it for fun.
It is therefore expected that at some point, people or organizations could come up and claim to advise the gamblers or punters in some way. Many methods might have been used including:
· Witchcraft as a source of sure bet predictions
· Scientific analysis as a source of sure bet predictions
· Intuition as a source of sure bet predictions
· Match fixing as a source of sure bet predictions
Let us have a look at how those four can determine the outcome of a gambling event before it even starts.
This is perhaps the most controversial but cannot be ignored given the nature of some past events. In a 2008 post on the Guardian entitled “Has witchcraft ever been used at the African Cup of Nations?”, the article says:
“Juju has already played a part in this year's tournament, Lloyd: in the opening match between hosts Ghana and Guinea, several Ghana fans carried a "juju pot" containing leaves and liquid in order to "scare away all devils", while churchgoers went to their Sunday service bedecked in the country's red, gold and green for a "cleansing" ceremony designed to inspire "total victory". It seemed to work, if you believe in this sort of thing or are a journalist in need of copy to file, as Ghana's Sulley Muntari scored a last-minute screamer to win the game.”
Source: The Guardian
Witchcraft may not be solely responsible for the win, but the link can not be ignored either.
Similarly, after the 2013 World Cup in South Africa, Leo Igwe wrote on his blog, Modern Ghana and I quote:
The witch-doctors subject them to some rituals or supply them with charms which they rub on their bodies, carry with them or bury on the pitch. At the 2002 AFCON, the former goalkeeper of Cameroon, Thomas Nkono, was caught:
“Burying bones under the turf and spraying a strange elixir, in order to cast a spell on the playing field' before a crucial semifinal match with Zambia. He was arrested and detained by the police.
In fact some teams go to the extent of contracting and having witch-doctors as part of the contingent.”
Source: Modern Ghana blog
There are hundreds of other examples over time around the world where witchcraft activities have been observed on the pitch or committed by team members and their management in public or private.
It is therefore up to you, the reader to judge if, behind the scenes, there are matches whose scores are predetermined by witchcraft.
2. SCIENTIFIC ANALYSIS
This is what most of us do. We try to put the statistics of the outcomes of the past matches of involved teams to gauge the current form, historical performance, scoring tendencies etc. This is also what you can see on betting company websites. Bu how reliable are these?
To some extent, they hold ground as a basis of a sound match prediction. It has been clear that there are more home team wins than away team win or draws in any league across the world.
For instance, Smarkets made a statistical analysis for the 2016/2017 English Premier League and this is what they found.
· 607 home goals
· 457 away goals
· 49.2% of games won by the home team
· 28.7% of games won by the away team
· 22.1% of games ended in a draw
From this end, you can say it is less risky to place bets on the home team in any match than the away team.
This method is however flawed because the home team is usually allocated very small odds compared to away teams. So even if you bet on home teams consistently you will end up using more money than the money you make. You will therefore lose a lot of money miserably in the long run.
Sadly, this is the basis some so-called tipsters use to give you what they call sure bet tips. Some give their customers predictions on home teams hoping to help them. They also use similar statistics to give “SURE PREDICTIONS” FOR OTHER MARKETS.
The problem with this approach is that betting houses long recruited statisticians, actuaries and business analysts to counter the benefit of statistic induced decisions. That is why any predicted outcome backed with good statistics will always have worthless odds. If you bet on such outcomes, there is a high probability of winning but in the long run, you will be either marketing or losing.
Therefore, any tipsters out there solely using statistics as their main tool of advising their clients is not doing them any favor.
Intuition is another source of bet predictions. This simply means people using their own feeling, instincts, and perceptions to make decisions. This includes those who are guided by human psychological strengths which often becomes weaknesses when it comes to betting.
For instance, there is a concept in psychology called Gambler’s fallacy. Wikipedia has the following to say about it:
“The gambler's fallacy, also known as the Monte Carlo fallacy or the fallacy of the maturity of chances, is the mistaken belief that, if something happens more frequently than normal during a given period, it will happen less frequently in the future (or vice versa). In situations where the outcome being observed is truly random and consists of independent trials of a random process, this belief is false. The fallacy can arise in many situations, but is most strongly associated with gambling, where it is common among players.”
This often manifests in human beings and the cause is simply that we are human beings who were created or evolved to survive in the world and not gamble. The concept, when applied in other areas of life is good for survival and thrift but in gambling it is a gross weakness for us.
Just because teams A and B have ended their last 5 matches in a draw does not mean that either they must draw again or they can’t draw again for the sixth straight time.
Any thought along those lines is a mistake. That is why statistics does not do well either in providing a basis for sure bet predictions or sure bet tips.
4. MATCH FIXING
Match fixing is real folks. It is however concealed just like any other “large ideas” and systems in the world. The people behind match fixing are faceless and untouchable. Just like the US Federal reserve which US citizens do not know who owns it, match fixers are also not know.
One thing is clear though, the fixed matches are used to make money. Not by winning cups or leagues but through betting. Did you know that billions of dollars are placed for some matches when they play? So imagine if someone somewhere knew for sure a match is fixed and they decide to bet on it. Note that the people involved in fixed matches are dollar billionaires. They can be able to pay back the losing team, the management and still keep profit from a single fixed match.
WHICH SURE BET PREDICTION SOURCE IS RELIABLE?
I have been betting for the last 10 years. I did not bet blindly even once because I used statistics. As an actuarial science graduate, I have no problem with doing some of the best match analysis to be ever done by a gambler. I used complicated probability models. I tried them all.
I however realized my profits were still low and statistics cannot be used to explain why a small team which has lost 10 consecutive matches all of a sudden beats a top team that has won 14 consecutive matches. So after I realized so, I decided to find out if sure bet predictions or fixed matches really exist.
This is the experiment I ran, be the judge.
1. We identified the top 20 sure bet tips websites in the world.
2. We subscribed on the VIP packages of all the 20 most popular bet prediction websites.
3. We monitored the winning rates for each of the 20 websites and identified the top 5 with the highest winning rates.
After this experiment, we found out that the winning rates for the top 5 tips websites, which according to me are the best sure bet prediction websites globally, were as follows:
Bet Ensured(96%% rate on VIP section)
Bet9ja VIP (94% rate on VIP section)
Jollof Tips (90% win rate on VIP section)
Bet Burger (87% win rate on VIP section)
Bet Numbers (87% win rate on VIP section)
Folks, this is a very good winning rate these guys have and we confirmed that for about 3 months. This led us to believe they might be having a good source of fixed matches’ information
There is one problem though; they are all pretty expensive. That is when an idea struck me. I thought that if I could get my hand on these website’s sure bet tips every day and then share cheaply with others who cannot afford the exorbitant prices these websites charge, I would make a profit. The subscriptions cost like 300 dollars a week in total. I thought that it would take only take 120 subscribers per week for me to recover 300 dollars if I charged KES. 250 or 3 dollars on my website.
That is how Surebet was founded. Call it whatever you may like but I call it retailing.
So this is what we did after that.
1. We then started Surebet website.
2. Surebet started making consistent subscriptions on those top 5 websites for the VIP access.
3. Surebet then analyses to see if there are common predictions on those top 5 websites.
4. The common predictions, meaning the same predictions made by more than 1 leading bet prediction company are considered fixed matches and are what we list on the Surebet website for you.
The method seems to be working and we already outgrew our initial market, Kenya. We now have clients from Nigeria, Uganda, USA, Italy, Saudi Arabia, Vietnam, Ghana, Tanzania and many other countries.
That is the closest you can ever, ever get to fixed matches.
Those tipsters that purport to give us sure bet tips, sure bet predictions or sure betting tips, let them come out and tell us their sources. I have explained ours.
To become a Surebet member visit our Surebet website and register by paying a fee of only 3 dollars by PayPal or Kes 250 by Mpesa (till number 942028-buy goods & services) and you will receive sure bet predictions immediately via text and email.
You also receive a password you can use to access the tips page.
NB: Please share this post on your social media because I want to incite all tipsters out there to come out and share the source of their tip so that we know those that lie to people and scamming them. If you have ever been scammed by a tipster, or know a person who have, you have every reason to share now.
Here I share the links I consider best for you, some on Surebet and others on other sites. Click on the link that best describes your need and enjoy.
Sportpesa Mega Jackpot Prediction - Good for the Sportpesa Megajackpot Prediction
Sure Bet Prediction -Good for daily sure bet tips
Today's Sure Tips - Good for sure bet tips today
Sportpesa Sure bet tips today - Good for daily Sportpesa tips
Sportpesa Website - Good for betting and winning money
Betpawa website - A good betting site you should try
Soccerpunter - One of the best soccer statistics site on the web
Footystats - One of the best soccer statistics site on the web
Soccerway - One of the best soccer statistics site on the web
Betting Tips Kenya - A good betting tips website just like us
VIP Tips - Link to our VIP betting tips