I understand how important it is to you and me to get good sure bet predictions today and each other day. But have you ever wondered the methods available for analysis and prediction of football betting tips?
When is the last time, for instance, you did a real mathematical prediction for football matches? Are there any sites you know that do a real and reliable scientific prediction for football bets? Let us assume you want to do football prediction for tomorrow. Where do you start? Of course you can go to a soccer prediction site. But what if you want to do your own sure predictions?
There are basically 2 methods for making football sure bet predictions:
1.General Conventional analysis and prediction
This method is the most common across sports and around the globe. Most of football betting fans just do their own analysis the easiest way they can. They usually look at past head to head matches for a team and see if they can pick up a trend then use their intuition to make a football betting prediction. Some also look at the current form of a team, the morale they have for a match and maybe the players that form the first 11's team.
It is hard to come up with a sure bet prediction using this method that is preferred by layman punters.
2. Mathematical and scientific analysis and prediction.
Mathematical analysis and prediction involving collecting large data sets on which you can then apply complex formulae and procedures to come up with scientifically correct conclusions. This method requires that you collect data, group data, analyze it and finally visualize the results that then you use to reach conclusions on the best bets to place.
This method is superior and more often than not leads to short term and long term profits. It is also a good method for finding sure bet tips and value bets.
In this article, I will take you to step by step on how to find the best football sure bet predictions for any game today and share with you a spreadsheet you can use to find your own Surebet predictions. There are basically 10 steps you need to use in order to do professional mathematically correct analysis for any sure bet today. They are:
Determine League average goals per match
Find the ELO Rating indicator ratios for the teams
Determine the time-weighted goal averages for the teams
Use Poisson to get expected goals for each team/Monte Carlo simulation
Get probabilities for each possible outcome
Convert the bookmaker odds to representative probabilities
Compare representative probabilities of the bookmaker with your probabilities
Filter out bets with low odds and identify the value bets
Rank all outcomes by means of probabilities
Determine the safest bet among the outcomes & define the arbitrage odds for the best bet
Now sit back relax and tighten your belt for a smooth ride into the world of scientific football bet prediction. Please note that this knowledge can change your betting fortunes by a big margin if implemented correctly.
Determine League average goals per match
The first step is getting a list of matches where the home team was at home and another list of previous matches when the away team was away. For the home team list, determine the average number of goals the team scored in those matches.
It is advisable to find a large number of matches ideally for the last 10 or so seasons. This average will give you a clear picture of the general scoring ability of the team. Studies have shown that team strengths remain relatively the same over a long period of time save for a few exceptions.
Repeat the step above for the away matches of the away team. The average will show you the scoring ability of the away team while away. This will represent their away strength in general.
After finding the averages, list them down and head to the next step.
Find the ELO Rating indicator ratios for the teams
ELO Ratings are internationally recognized rankings for teams as determined by their past performances. The ELO ratings are reached by determining a start point first and the initial ratings. The next thing is adding to the initial score a specific score for every performance according to the outcome. Since there are 3 major scores for any match (Win, Draw, Loss), each carries a specific score as shown below:
Home win – Add 1 to the previous score
Draw – Add 0.5 to the previous score
Loss – Add 0 to the previous score
This rating system gives a clear representation of a team’s relative strength to another. You can then decide to use the absolute totals by comparing them directly for the teams involved to see the stronger team.
Since some matches may have teams that miss out during some seasons due to league promotion or relegation, it is better to use the average ELO ratings score. That would not only be more accurate but easier to work with. You can do this on a spreadsheet for any number of teams or matches if you apply the formulas to match lists correctly. If you need the sure bet ELO rating spreadsheet I can share it with you upon request.
After determining the average ELO scores for the teams, transpose them using the previous mean to convert them into representative goals then list them down somewhere and proceed to the next step.
Determine the time-weighted goal averages for the teams
The third metric you need to calculate is the time-weighted amen of goals per match for similar matches in the past. This is the same as the first step except for that time between past results and now is a factor to be considered.
You might already be familiar with the fact that matches in the distant past might not be able to predict present matches. This, therefore, means that the most recent matches are given heavier weights than matches in the distant past. This will give you a clear picture of a team’s general strength and their current form all in one metric.
If you are considering matches in the past 4 seasons, you can decide to give the latest season a weight of, say, 4 and one weight, less for the previous seasons respectively. This method, therefore, means a goal scored in the latest season is 4 times more helpful in predicting the upcoming match than a goal scored 4 years ago.
After finding the totals remember to divide it by the average of the weights so that you get a mathematically correct weighted average to use in a scientific football sure prediction.
Use Poisson to get expected goals for each team
The next step is to use a Poisson distribution to determine the expected number of goals for each team in the upcoming match. To do this you will use the means from above as the (λ). The probabilities you will need to find for each team is that of scoring 0, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, and 6… goals. With these you can pretty easily use an excel POISSON formula to determine the probabilities.
For example, if we were trying to determine the probabilities for goals numbers for a match between Swindon and Notts County, the probabilities based on the general average number of goals against all teams in similar matches are:
Swindon: 1.59 goals
Notts County: 1.06 goals
The Poisson probability table would then be as follows:
The ELO Ratings converted to goals for these 2 teams are:
Swindon: 1.8
Notts County: 1.3
The time-weighted goal averages for the teams are:
Swindon: 1.13
Notts County: 0.91
The Poisson probabilities based on the weighted goal averages will look as below:
Get probabilities for each possible outcome
Next step is finding 3 different sets of probabilities for all the possible outcomes of the match in all betting markets. To do this you first need to make a spreadsheet with a list of all goal combinations on the rows and the betting markets on the columns.
Convert the bookmaker odds to representative probabilities
The next step is to list all bookmaker odds against all betting outcomes and the probabilities obtained from the above 5 steps. Then using an inverse function convert the bookmaker odds into representative probabilities for comparison with your own probabilities.
Compare representative probabilities of the bookmarker with your probabilities
Compare your probabilities with the probabilities obtained from the inverse of the bookmaker odds and see those where the bookmaker probabilities are larger than yours and vice versa.
Filter out bets with low odds and identify the value bets
At this point, it is better to filter out the odds which are not above your preferred minimum. You should have a minimum odds those that you consider the lowest you can consider betting on. Any odds less than those are better removed at this point. It will not make any sense if you get a nice bet with minimal odds.
Rank all outcomes by means of probabilities
Alter the filter, you now remain with odds that are relatively bigger than your threshold. They are odds you can consider betting on. Now sort those remaining odds from the highest to the lowest.
Determine the safest bet among the outcomes & define the arbitrage odds for the best sure betting tips
It is time to decide on your odds. Using a simple bet validation software you can now validate your bets using various methods. This is the point where you can use the various probability tables in step 4. Validate the bets using simple machine language software or even an excel spreadsheet with good inbuilt validation formulas. You can request this template from us if you need it.
CONCLUSION
From the above steps, it is clear you can make your own mathematically valid sure bet predictions if you have the right skills and time to build your own resources. Better still, you can rely on our mathematically and scientifically validated sure betting tips. Our bet analysis is like no other in the whole world. Our prediction service gives the most profitable betting tips.
Visit our pricing page and choose a package to start receiving the best predictions every day in all major categories.