This Ilves Tampere vs HJK Helsinki Prediction leaves no chance for doubt as far as all methods of prediction are concerned. We use mathematical, scientific and expert predictions to make sure we come up with the most meaningful prediction for you.
Most importantly, we make sure that we give the most feasible prediction for the Sportpesa mega jackpot and find out if there is a bet within this match that qualifies as a sure bet prediction.
TAMPERE VS HJK HELSINKI RELATIVE STRENGTHS
First of all we have to determine the relative strengths of the teams. Using the ELO Ratings method, we determined that Tampere has an ELO ratings of 1.67 while that of Helsinki is 5.9. These ratings are weighted on the scale of time where recent performances are allocated more weight than past performances.
It therefore caters for recent form. Clearly from the ratings, Helsinki is far stronger than Tampere. The difference is atypically so big that it is almost clear where the scales of the game will tilt to. However, before jumping into any conclusion, there are a myriad of factors we have to consider that may greatly upset the expected results.
Using the Poisson distribution to predict the expected goals for the two teams, we first find the mean goals of their past matches. Helsinki has been scoring an average of 1.58 goals per match for the last 10 years while their weekend visitors have been averaging 1.36 goals per match.
In head to head matches, Helsinki has scored 1.33 goals per match against Tampere while the later has managed a meager 0.77 goals per match against Helsinki.
Using these metrics in running Monte Carlo simulations in an artificial intelligence setting, we find that Tampere is most likely to score 0 or 1 goal in this match while Helsinki has the most likelihood to score 1 or two games in this Sportpesa mega jackpot game this weekend.
Considering all the available information on the past performances, expert predictions and scientific predictions, we conclude that there is a 29% chance for Tampere to win this game, a 25% chance for a draw and a 46% chance for a Helsinki win.
This is however not the best bet for this match. Keep reading to know the best bet.
Below is a graph illustrating the chances of the 1X2 possible outcomes for this match.
DOUBLE CHANCE PREDICTION
This match is however more likely to end up with either of the teams winning. A draw is highly unlikely. Of the 3 double chances, the 1X bet (home win or draw) is the least likely. The probability of a 1X bet winning is only 53% which, according to Surebet standards is a bad idea to risk.
BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE PREDICTION
As I pointed out earlier, this match is more likely to end with each team having scored than not. The probability is highest that the home team may manage one goal while the away team may manage to score 1 or more goals.
This does not however make this a sure bet prediction. At the end of this article we will point out the sure bet tips in case you want to win a bet on this game. Just be patient a little bit.
OVER 1.5 GOALS/UNDER 1.5 GOALS PREDICTION
There is 76% chance of this game ending in Over 1.5 goals. This is the highest of any over or under categories. Unfortunately, the odds are only 1.5 meaning the value of your bet would be low if you decided on that bet however safe it seems.
On the other hand, do not even think of risking with an under 21.5 goals bet for this match. The probability for this match ending with 1 goal or no goal is only 24% according to our Surebet software, mathematical and statistical projections, expert opinion and even artificial intelligence predictions.
OVER 2.5 GOALS/UNDER 2.5 GOALS PREDICTION
There is a 53% chance of this match ending in over 2.5 goals. There is also a 46% chance of it ending with 2 goals or less. Given that the odds for over 2.5 goals are quite high at 2.5, you might consider this bet because it seems like a value bet. But hold on we are coming to value bets shortly.
OVER 3.5 GOALS/UNDER 3.5 GOALS PREDICTION
The chances for a over 3.5 goals is 32% while those for under 3.5 goals is 67%. The latter comes with odds of 1.2 making it an almost worthless bet. Steer clear of it.
EXPERT PREDICTIONS SUPPORTED BY STATISTICS, MATHEMATICS AND INSIDER INFORMATION
In this section we now look at the best bets that you should actually try out for this game.
We look at value bets, bets with high odds and good chances of coming to pass and we also run several tests to make sure that what we recommend actually works for you in terms of making profits for you.
VALIDATED, NON-VALUE BETS WITH HIGH ODDS
The following odds have been validated by the Poisson distribution prediction method, the Monte Carlo Simulation and Artificial Intelligence method of prediction and the Gobal ELO ratings system which is used by bookmakers to come up with predictions that inform the odds the assign.
2 OR 3 GOALS
All methods have validated the Group bet of the total goals in the match being 2 or 3. This bet has odds of 1.95 which is relatively high. Our Surebet meter show that this prediction is however an average bet and not a 100% Surebet.
Please note that 90% of these recommendations of our system are usually correct. Sometimes the recommendations shock us because they seem out of the blues but when the results are out, we always are astonished by the accuracy and insight.
To better understand why this bet was chosen by the Surebet system, below is a graph illustrating the chances of the match ending in the banded goals:
As you can see, there is 43% chance that the game will end in either 2 or 3 goals, which is the largest probability of any other band or group of goals. 0 or 1 goal and 4 or 5 goals bands tie at a distant second of 24% while the chances for the match ending in 6 or more goals is negligible.
Below is the Surebet meter ratings for this bet:
As you can see, that bet is validated by 3 powerful methods. The meter is however stuck at average meaning this still does not qualify as a sure bet.
VALIDATED VALUE BETS WITH MEDIUM ODDS
These are usually some of the best bets you can actually use if you have not subscribes to the VIP package. This match happens to have such a bet below.
OVER 1.5 GOALS
The bookmakers have apparently underestimated the possibility of a Over 1.5 goals for this match. The odds they have given of 1.5 are actually higher than they should be and for that reason we call this a value bet. Better, this bet has been validated by all the available Sure bet methods.
Below are the readings of the Surebetometer for this bet.
As you can see, this bet is almost a Surebet and the odds are reasonable. You might as well go ahead and bet on this outcome.
MEGA JACKPOT PREDITION
This being one of the Sportpesa mega jackpot matches this weekend, we also went ahead and employed all methods of prediction and here are the results:
After running all tests, it actually happened that the mega jackpot prediction for this match is a value bet validated and with relatively high odds.
The megajackpot prediction is actually an away win with odds of 2.62.
Below are the sure bet predictor meter for that prediction.
An away win is therefore the safest mega jackpot analysis prediction for this jackpot match.
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