NEWCASTLE vs BURNLEY HOME WIN SUREBET PREDICTION
A detailed Newcastle vs Burnley HOME WIN sure prediction with expert opinion, H2H matches, statistical analysis for this England, EFL Cup match on 25-Aug-2021
Newcastle
DATE:
25 August 2021 at 21:45:00
Burnley
COUNTRY:
England
LEAGUE
EFL Cup
TIME:
9:45 PM
1X2 PREDICTION
HOME WIN:
49%
AVR. ODDS:
2.27
VALUEBET?
Value Bet
DRAW:
27%
AVR. ODDS:
3.21
VALUEBET?
Not a Value Bet
AWAY WIN:
23%
AVR. ODDS:
3.26
VALUEBET?
Not a Value Bet
EXPERT TIPS FOR THIS MATCH
All 3 major Surebet prediction models have indicated a possible home win in this Newcastle vs Burnley match. Poisson prediction model shows there is a 37.33% chance for the outcome while the ELO Ratings model shows a 49.06% chance for the same. Finally, 61.97% of the Monte Carlo simulation runs for this match resulted in home win.
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This pretty much consolidates the prediction of a home win in this game. The expected value for a Home Win prediction is denoted as EV(Home Win) and is calculated by multiplying the amount of stake by the odds and again by the probability of winning then subtracting the result of multiplying the stake and the probability of losing. By using 100 as your sample stake, by calculating the EV as explained, we get the expected value for a Home Win in this Newcastle vs Burnley match is 61.71 which is positive and therefore a good bet.
The odds for Home Win outcome on major betting sites are, on average, 2.27 with an implied bookmaker probability of 44.05%. Considering that the surebet probability for the Home Win outcome for this Newcastle vs Burnley match is 49.45%, then this bet is a value bet. If you play this bet then you gain expected value by 5.40%Strong recent and past performances that Newcastle have demonstrated lead us to conclude that the prospects for a home win are quite high for this match.
Expert football prediction sites have also supported this prediction by far and large. Burnley might not be able to record either a win or a draw in this match. It is however prudent to compare diffrent predictions to find the ones with the highest probabilities. True profits come from predictions with over 90% chance of coming true. Some of our tips are 100% sure and guaranteed but can only be accessed by VIP members.
You can also become a VIP member once you subscribe. Note also that you do not always have to use the win-draw-win market. It might be popular but not necessarily the best or least risky. See all predictions today to see tips from other betting markets.
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GG/NG(BTTS) PREDICTION
GG(BTTS):
41%
AVR. ODDS:
1.9
VALUEBET?
Not a Value Bet
NO GOAL:
AVR. ODDS:
59%
1.8
VALUEBET?
Value Bet
OVER/UNDER 1.5 GOALS PREDICTION
OVER 1.5:
40%
AVR. ODDS:
1.41
VALUEBET?
Not a Value Bet
UNDER 1.5:
36%
AVR. ODDS:
2.95
VALUEBET?
Value Bet
OVER/UNDER 2.5 GOALS PREDICTION
OVER 2.5:
38%
AVR. ODDS:
2.16
VALUEBET?
Not a Value Bet
UNDER 2.5:
AVR. ODDS:
VALUEBET?
62%
1.62
Value Bet
OVER/UNDER 3.5 GOALS PREDICTION
OVER 3.5:
18%
AVR. ODDS:
3.79
VALUEBET?
Not a Value Bet
UNDER 3.5:
82%
AVR. ODDS:
1.21
VALUEBET?
Not a Value Bet
MATCH STATISTICS AND ANALYSIS
NEWCASTLE VS BURNLEY LATEST HEAD TO HEAD MATCHES
Burnley and Newcastle have met 6 times recently since 26/11/18. Below is a breakdown of those matches and the results. Note that these matches will play a big role in the Burnley vs Newcastle prediction.
04-Nov-2021 - Burnley [1 : 2] Newcastle
10-Mar-2020 - Newcastle [3 : 1] Burnley
29/02/20 - Newcastle [0 : 0] Burnley
14/12/19 - Burnley [1 : 0] Newcastle
26/02/19 - Newcastle [2 : 0] Burnley
26/11/18 - Burnley [1 : 2] Newcastle
NEWCASTLE LAST 10 MATCHES
Below are Newcastle's last 10 matches whose results will be part of the data needed for this game's sure bet prediction:
Aston Villa won against Newcastle (2-0) on 21/08/21
Then Newcastle lost to West Ham (2-4) on 15/08/21
Newcastle won against Norwich (3-0) on 08-Jul-2021
Not surprisingly Burton lost to Newcastle (0-2) on 30/07/21
Rotherham drew with Newcastle (1-1) on 27/07/21
Doncaster lost to Newcastle (2-3) on 23/07/21
Then York won against Newcastle (1-0) on 18/07/21
Fulham London lost to Newcastle (0-2) on 23/05/21
Newcastle won against Sheffield (1-0) on 19/05/21
In the earliest match listed here Newcastle lost to Man City (3-4) on 14/05/21
RECENT MATCHES - AWAY TEAM
Below are Burnley's last 10 matches whose results will be part of the data needed for this game's sure bet prediction:
Liverpool won against Burnley (2-0) on 21/08/21
Burnley lost to Brighton (1-2) on 14/08/21
Then Burnley lost to Cadiz (0-2) on 08-Jul-2021
Blackpool lost to Burnley (0-1) on 27/07/21
Oldham lost to Burnley (0-2) on 24/07/21
Then Sheffield won against Burnley (1-0) on 23/05/21
Burnley lost to Liverpool (0-3) on 19/05/21
Burnley lost to Leeds United (0-4) on 15/05/21
Once more Fulham London lost to Burnley (0-2) on 05-Oct-2021
Burnley lost to West Ham (1-2) on 05-Mar-2021
NEWCASTLE'S POSITION
No position listed
BURNLEY'S POSITION
No position listed
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