HOME WIN TIPS DRAW TIPS AWAY WIN TIPS GG TIPS NG TIPS OVER 1.5 TIPS Given the historical results of these teams, it is most likely that at least 2 goals will be scored in this match. Regardless of the low odds, I bet you might want to form a multi bet with this over 1.5 Prediction for Defensor Sporting vs Deportivo Maldonado. The over OR under 1.5 goals tips for this match is therefore clearly, over 1.5 goals. We used the 3 main prediction models to find the validity of a over 1.5 in this Defensor Sporting vs Deportivo Maldonado match. The Monte Carlo simulation prediction model indicated a 66.72% probability for a OVER 1.5 outcome. The ELO Ratings model came through with a 77.30% probability for the same outccome. The third model, Poisson probabilites prediction model showed there's a 84.28% chance for a over 1.5 outcome. This Defensor Sporting vs Deportivo Maldonado match has a few other bets that have been validated by all the 3 models. Keep reading to find them all. To find if the Over 1.5 bet is a value bet, we need to compare the implied OVER 1.5 bookmaker probability with calculated and validated Surebet probability for the same. The odds for this outcome are averagely 1.16 with an implied bookmaker probability of 86.21%. The calculated Surebet probability for the Over 1.5 outcome for this Defensor Sporting vs Deportivo Maldonado match is 76.10%, meaning this bet is not a value bet. In case you place this bet, you may be about to lose expected value by -10.11%. Expected Value, EV(OVER 1.5), for a OVER 1.5 result for this Defensor Sporting vs Deportivo Maldonado match is calculated as follows: Let P(OVER 1.5) be the probability of winning this bet, P(0) be the probability of losing this bet. Also assuming that your stake is 100 then the Expected value is; P(OVER 1.5) * 100* 1.16 where 1.16 are the decimal odds for this outcome. Using this formula then you should get the expected value for a OVER 1.5 for Defensor Sporting vs Deportivo Maldonado, EV(OVER 1.5) to be 76.10% * 100 * 1.16, which translates to 64.37. This is a positive Expected Value thus further vaidating this bet mathematically.