We used the 3 main prediction models to find the validity of a over 1.5 in this Osnabruck vs Duisburg match. The Monte Carlo simulation prediction model indicated a 64.39% probability for a OVER 1.5 outcome. The ELO Ratings model came through with a 70.30% probability for the same outccome. 

The third model, Poisson probabilites prediction model showed there's a 75.27% chance for a over 1.5 outcome. This Osnabruck vs Duisburg match has a few other bets that have been validated by all the 3 models. Keep reading to find them all. To find if the Over 1.5 bet is a value bet, we need to compare the implied OVER 1.5 bookmaker probability with calculated and validated Surebet probability for the same. The odds for this outcome are averagely 1.20261437908497 with an implied bookmaker probability of 83.15%. 

The calculated Surebet probability for the Over 1.5 outcome for this Osnabruck vs Duisburg match is 69.99%, meaning this bet is not a value bet. In case you place this bet, you may be about to lose expected value by -13.17%Expected Value, EV(OVER 1.5), for a OVER 1.5 result for this Osnabruck vs Duisburg match is calculated as follows: Let P(OVER 1.5) be the probability of winning this bet, P(0) be the probability of losing this bet. Also assuming that your stake is 100 then the Expected value is; P(OVER 1.5) * 100* 1.20261437908497 where 1.20261437908497 are the decimal odds for this outcome. 

Using this formula then you should get the expected value for a OVER 1.5 for Osnabruck vs Duisburg, EV(OVER 1.5) to be 69.99% * 100 * 1.2, which translates to 54.15. This is a positive Expected Value thus further vaidating this bet mathematically.Given the historical results of these teams, it is most likely that at least 2 goals will be scored in this match. 

Regardless of the low odds, I bet you might want to form a multi bet with this over 1.5 Prediction for Osnabruck vs Duisburg. The over OR under 1.5 goals tips for this match is therefore clearly, over 1.5 goals.