We used the 3 main prediction models to find the validity of a over 1.5 in this Bastia vs Nancy match. The Monte Carlo simulation prediction model indicated a 79.61% probability for a OVER 1.5 outcome. The ELO Ratings model came through with a 75.06% probability for the same outccome. 

The third model, Poisson probabilites prediction model showed there's a 69.44% chance for a over 1.5 outcome. This Bastia vs Nancy match has a few other bets that have been validated by all the 3 models. Keep reading to find them all. Expected Value, EV(OVER 1.5), for a OVER 1.5 result for this Bastia vs Nancy match is calculated as follows: Let P(OVER 1.5) be the probability of winning this bet, P(0) be the probability of losing this bet. 

Also assuming that your stake is 100 then the Expected value is; P(OVER 1.5) * 100* 1.44444444444444 where 1.44444444444444 are the decimal odds for this outcome. Using this formula then you should get the expected value for a OVER 1.5 for Bastia vs Nancy, EV(OVER 1.5) to be 74.70% * 100 * 1.44, which translates to 82.61. This is a positive Expected Value thus further vaidating this bet mathematically.

To find if the Over 1.5 bet is a value bet, we need to compare the implied OVER 1.5 bookmaker probability with calculated and validated Surebet probability for the same. The odds for this outcome are averagely 1.44444444444444 with an implied bookmaker probability of 69.23%. The calculated Surebet probability for the Over 1.5 outcome for this Bastia vs Nancy match is 74.70%, meaning this bet is a value bet. In case you place this bet, you may gain expected value by 5.47%Given the historical results of these teams, it is most likely that at least 2 goals will be scored in this match. 

Regardless of the low odds, I bet you might want to form a multi bet with this over 1.5 Prediction for Bastia vs Nancy. The over OR under 1.5 goals tips for this match is therefore clearly, over 1.5 goals.