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WATFORD vs ASTON VILLA SURE PREDICTION

A detailed Watford vs Aston Villa sure prediction with expert opinion, H2H matches, statistical analysis for this England, Premier League match on 14-Aug-2021

Watford

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تاريخ:

14 August 2021 at 17:00:00

Aston Villa

بلد:

England

الدوري

Premier League

زمن:

5:00 PM

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1X2 التنبؤ

الرئيسية اربح:

51%

AVR. احتمال:

3.27

VALUEBET؟

Value Bet

رسم:

21%

AVR. احتمال:

3.27

VALUEBET؟

Not a Value Bet

الفوز بعيدًا:

26%

AVR. احتمال:

2.25

VALUEBET؟

Not a Value Bet

نصائح الخبراء لهذه المباراة

We used the 3 main prediction models to find the validity of a home win in this Watford vs Aston Villa match. The Monte Carlo simulation prediction model indicated a 55.19% probability for a Home Win outcome. The ELO Ratings model came through with a 52.54% probability for the same outccome. 


The third model, Poisson probabilites prediction model showed there's a 46.18% chance for a home win outcome. This Watford vs Aston Villa match has a few other bets that have been validated by all the 3 models. Keep reading to find them all. Expected Value, EV(Home Win), for a Home Win result for this Watford vs Aston Villa match is calculated as follows: Let P(Home Win) be the probability of winning this bet, P(0) be the probability of losing this bet. 


Also assuming that your stake is 100 then the Expected value is; P(Home Win) * 100* 3.27 where 3.27 are the decimal odds for this outcome. Using this formula then you should get the expected value for a Home Win for Watford vs Aston Villa, EV(Home Win) to be 51.30% * 100 * 3.27, which translates to 119.05. 



This is a positive Expected Value thus further vaidating this bet mathematically.To find if the Home Win bet is a value bet, we need to compare the implied Home Win bookmaker probability with calculated and validated Surebet probability for the same. The odds for this outcome are averagely 3.27 with an implied bookmaker probability of 30.58%. The calculated Surebet probability for the Home Win outcome for this Watford vs Aston Villa match is 51.30%, meaning this bet is a value bet. In case you place this bet, you may gain expected value by 20.72%.


After analysing all the data and compiling and comparing expert opinions on this Watford vs Aston Villa match, we are well convinced that Watford is in better form, better motivated and has proven in the past their ability to dominate this game against Aston Villa. The surebet prediction for this game is therefore a home win. 


Note that there might be even better tips you can bet on today if you can be bold enough to subscribe for VIP tips. Besides, you might want to check out the GG/NG tips given their ability to increase betting profits for many punters.

WATFORD vs ASTON VILLA SURE PREDICTION

مشاركة هذه الصفحة مع أصدقائك.

تنبؤ GG / NG (BTTS)

GG (BTTS):

68%

AVR. احتمال:

1.76

VALUEBET؟

Value Bet

لا هدف:

AVR. احتمال:

31%

1.95

VALUEBET؟

Not a Value Bet

أكثر / أقل من 1.5 هدف التنبؤ

أكثر من 1.5:

40٪

AVR. احتمال:

1.28

VALUEBET؟

Value Bet

أقل من 1.5:

13%

AVR. احتمال:

3.18

VALUEBET؟

Not a Value Bet

أكثر / أقل من 2.5 هدف التنبؤ

أكثر من 2.5:

69%

AVR. احتمال:

1.96

VALUEBET؟

Value Bet

أقل من 2.5:

AVR. احتمال:

VALUEBET؟

29%

1.75

Not a Value Bet

أكثر / أقل من 3.5 أهداف التنبؤ

أكثر من 3.5:

50%

AVR. احتمال:

3.44

VALUEBET؟

Value Bet

أقل من 3.5:

48%

AVR. احتمال:

1.31

VALUEBET؟

Not a Value Bet

إحصائيات المباراة وتحليلها

WATFORD VS ASTON VILLA LATEST HEAD TO HEAD MATCHES

Aston Villa and Watford have met 6 times recently since 20/01/07. Below is a breakdown of those matches and the results. Note that these matches will play a big role in the Aston Villa vs Watford prediction.
21/01/20 - Aston Villa [2 : 1] Watford
28/12/19 - Watford [3 : 0] Aston Villa
29/07/17 - Aston Villa [0 : 0] Watford
30/04/16 - Watford [3 : 2] Aston Villa
28/11/15 - Aston Villa [2 : 3] Watford
20/01/07 - Aston Villa [2 : 0] Watford

WATFORD LAST 10 MATCHES

Below are Watford's last 10 matches whose results will be part of the data needed for this game's sure bet prediction:
Crystal Palace won against Watford (3-1) on 08-Jul-2021
Then Stevenage drew with Watford (1-1) on 27/07/21
Watford drew with West Bromwich (0-0) on 24/07/21
Not surprisingly Watford won against Swansea (2-0) on 05-Aug-2021
Brentford won against Watford (2-0) on 05-Jan-2021
Watford won against Millwall (1-0) on 24/04/21
Then Norwich lost to Watford (0-1) on 20/04/21
Luton won against Watford (1-0) on 17/04/21
Watford won against Reading (2-0) on 04-Sep-2021
In the earliest match listed here Middlesbrough drew with Watford (1-1) on 04-May-2021

المباريات الأخيرة - فريق بعيد

Below are Aston Villa's last 10 matches whose results will be part of the data needed for this game's sure bet prediction:
Aston Villa won against Salernitana (3-1) on 08-Aug-2021
Bristol City lost to Aston Villa (0-3) on 31/07/21
Then Stoke won against Aston Villa (2-0) on 24/07/21
Walsall lost to Aston Villa (0-4) on 21/07/21
Aston Villa won against Chelsea (2-1) on 23/05/21
Then Tottenham lost to Aston Villa (1-2) on 19/05/21
Crystal Palace won against Aston Villa (3-2) on 16/05/21
Aston Villa drew with Everton (0-0) on 13/05/21
Once more Aston Villa lost to Man Utd (1-3) on 05-Sep-2021
Everton lost to Aston Villa (1-2) on 05-Jan-2021

WATFORD'S POSITION

No position listed

ASTON VILLA'S POSITION

No position listed

تطوير

التسعير

انظر أدناه ما تحصل عليه عند الترقية

 

نصائح قسط

3 دولار أمريكي

2.5 يورو

250 KES

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نصائح VIP

نصائح VIP

12 دولار أمريكي

1000 KES

10 يورو

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المباريات الثابتة

المباريات الثابتة

120 دولار أمريكي

10000 شيلينغ كيني

  • 15 على الأقل  مباريات ثابتة يوميا

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