We used the 3 main prediction models to find the validity of a home win in this Watford vs Aston Villa match. The Monte Carlo simulation prediction model indicated a 55.19% probability for a Home Win outcome. The ELO Ratings model came through with a 52.54% probability for the same outccome. 

The third model, Poisson probabilites prediction model showed there's a 46.18% chance for a home win outcome. This Watford vs Aston Villa match has a few other bets that have been validated by all the 3 models. Keep reading to find them all. Expected Value, EV(Home Win), for a Home Win result for this Watford vs Aston Villa match is calculated as follows: Let P(Home Win) be the probability of winning this bet, P(0) be the probability of losing this bet. 

Also assuming that your stake is 100 then the Expected value is; P(Home Win) * 100* 3.27 where 3.27 are the decimal odds for this outcome. Using this formula then you should get the expected value for a Home Win for Watford vs Aston Villa, EV(Home Win) to be 51.30% * 100 * 3.27, which translates to 119.05. 

This is a positive Expected Value thus further vaidating this bet mathematically.To find if the Home Win bet is a value bet, we need to compare the implied Home Win bookmaker probability with calculated and validated Surebet probability for the same. The odds for this outcome are averagely 3.27 with an implied bookmaker probability of 30.58%. The calculated Surebet probability for the Home Win outcome for this Watford vs Aston Villa match is 51.30%, meaning this bet is a value bet. In case you place this bet, you may gain expected value by 20.72%.

After analysing all the data and compiling and comparing expert opinions on this Watford vs Aston Villa match, we are well convinced that Watford is in better form, better motivated and has proven in the past their ability to dominate this game against Aston Villa. The surebet prediction for this game is therefore a home win. 

Note that there might be even better tips you can bet on today if you can be bold enough to subscribe for VIP tips. Besides, you might want to check out the GG/NG tips given their ability to increase betting profits for many punters.