HOME WIN TIPS After analysing all the data and compiling and comparing expert opinions on this River Plate (Uru) vs Ca Penarol match, we are well convinced that River Plate (Uru) is in better form, better motivated and has proven in the past their ability to dominate this game against Ca Penarol. The surebet prediction for this game is therefore a home win. Note that there might be even better tips you can bet on today if you can be bold enough to subscribe for VIP tips. Besides, you might want to check out the GG/NG tips given their ability to increase betting profits for many punters. We used the 3 main prediction models to find the validity of a home win in this River Plate (Uru) vs Ca Penarol match. The Monte Carlo simulation prediction model indicated a 37.57% probability for a Home Win outcome. The ELO Ratings model came through with a 41.88% probability for the same outccome. The third model, Poisson probabilites prediction model showed there's a 46.07% chance for a home win outcome. This River Plate (Uru) vs Ca Penarol match has a few other bets that have been validated by all the 3 models. Keep reading to find them all. To find if the Home Win bet is a value bet, we need to compare the implied Home Win bookmaker probability with calculated and validated Surebet probability for the same. The odds for this outcome are averagely 2.3 with an implied bookmaker probability of 43.48%. The calculated Surebet probability for the Home Win outcome for this River Plate (Uru) vs Ca Penarol match is 41.84%, meaning this bet is not a value bet. In case you place this bet, you may be about to lose expected value by -1.64%. Expected Value, EV(Home Win), for a Home Win result for this River Plate (Uru) vs Ca Penarol match is calculated as follows: Let P(Home Win) be the probability of winning this bet, P(0) be the probability of losing this bet. Also assuming that your stake is 100 then the Expected value is; P(Home Win) * 100* 2.3 where 2.3 are the decimal odds for this outcome. Using this formula then you should get the expected value for a Home Win for River Plate (Uru) vs Ca Penarol, EV(Home Win) to be 41.84% * 100 * 2.3, which translates to 38.06. This is a positive Expected Value thus further vaidating this bet mathematically. DRAW TIPS AWAY WIN TIPS GG TIPS NG TIPS River Plate (Uru) and Ca Penarol will probably not score each other in this game. It may be much wiser if you steered clear of a goal-goal prediction and stuck with no-goal (NG prediction). If recent outcomes for mathes played by these teams both at home and away is anything to go by, then both River Plate (Uru) and Ca Penarol have no chance scoring each other. This is going to be a low scoring match and one team will walk away goalless. The GG/NG tips for this game is therefore No-goal. We used the 3 main prediction models to find the validity of a ng in this River Plate (Uru) vs Ca Penarol match. The Monte Carlo simulation prediction model indicated a 59.97% probability for a NG outcome. The ELO Ratings model came through with a 58.27% probability for the same outccome. The third model, Poisson probabilites prediction model showed there's a 56.95% chance for a ng outcome. This River Plate (Uru) vs Ca Penarol match has a few other bets that have been validated by all the 3 models. Keep reading to find them all. To find if the Ng bet is a value bet, we need to compare the implied NG bookmaker probability with calculated and validated Surebet probability for the same. The odds for this outcome are averagely 1.72 with an implied bookmaker probability of 58.14%. The calculated Surebet probability for the Ng outcome for this River Plate (Uru) vs Ca Penarol match is 58.40%, meaning this bet is a value bet. In case you place this bet, you may gain expected value by 0.26%. Expected Value, EV(NG), for a NG result for this River Plate (Uru) vs Ca Penarol match is calculated as follows: Let P(NG) be the probability of winning this bet, P(0) be the probability of losing this bet. Also assuming that your stake is 100 then the Expected value is; P(NG) * 100* 1.72 where 1.72 are the decimal odds for this outcome. Using this formula then you should get the expected value for a NG for River Plate (Uru) vs Ca Penarol, EV(NG) to be 58.40% * 100 * 1.72, which translates to 58.84. This is a positive Expected Value thus further vaidating this bet mathematically. OVER 1.5 TIPS Given the historical results of these teams, it is most likely that at least 2 goals will be scored in this match. Regardless of the low odds, I bet you might want to form a multi bet with this over 1.5 Prediction for River Plate (Uru) vs Ca Penarol. The over OR under 1.5 goals tips for this match is therefore clearly, over 1.5 goals. We used the 3 main prediction models to find the validity of a over 1.5 in this River Plate (Uru) vs Ca Penarol match. The Monte Carlo simulation prediction model indicated a 59.58% probability for a OVER 1.5 outcome. The ELO Ratings model came through with a 62.06% probability for the same outccome. The third model, Poisson probabilites prediction model showed there's a 64.42% chance for a over 1.5 outcome. This River Plate (Uru) vs Ca Penarol match has a few other bets that have been validated by all the 3 models. Keep reading to find them all. To find if the Over 1.5 bet is a value bet, we need to compare the implied OVER 1.5 bookmaker probability with calculated and validated Surebet probability for the same. The odds for this outcome are averagely 1.58 with an implied bookmaker probability of 63.29%. The calculated Surebet probability for the Over 1.5 outcome for this River Plate (Uru) vs Ca Penarol match is 62.02%, meaning this bet is not a value bet. In case you place this bet, you may be about to lose expected value by -1.27%. Expected Value, EV(OVER 1.5), for a OVER 1.5 result for this River Plate (Uru) vs Ca Penarol match is calculated as follows: Let P(OVER 1.5) be the probability of winning this bet, P(0) be the probability of losing this bet. Also assuming that your stake is 100 then the Expected value is; P(OVER 1.5) * 100* 1.58 where 1.58 are the decimal odds for this outcome. Using this formula then you should get the expected value for a OVER 1.5 for River Plate (Uru) vs Ca Penarol, EV(OVER 1.5) to be 62.02% * 100 * 1.58, which translates to 60.01. This is a positive Expected Value thus further vaidating this bet mathematically.