Expected Value, EV(NG), for a NG result for this Red Star vs Boulogne match is calculated as follows: Let P(NG) be the probability of winning this bet, P(0) be the probability of losing this bet. Also assuming that your stake is 100 then the Expected value is; P(NG) * 100* 1.58 where 1.58 are the decimal odds for this outcome. 

Using this formula then you should get the expected value for a NG for Red Star vs Boulogne, EV(NG) to be 52.39% * 100 * 1.58, which translates to 35.15. This is a positive Expected Value thus further vaidating this bet mathematically.To find if the Ng bet is a value bet, we need to compare the implied NG bookmaker probability with calculated and validated Surebet probability for the same. The odds for this outcome are averagely 1.58 with an implied bookmaker probability of 63.29%. 

The calculated Surebet probability for the Ng outcome for this Red Star vs Boulogne match is 52.39%, meaning this bet is not a value bet. In case you place this bet, you may be about to lose expected value by -10.91%Red Star and Boulogne will probably not score each other in this game. It may be much wiser if you steered clear of a goal-goal prediction and stuck with no-goal (NG prediction).

If recent outcomes for mathes played by these teams both at home and away is anything to go by, then both Red Star and Boulogne have no chance scoring each other. This is going to be a low scoring match and one team will walk away goalless. The GG/NG tips for this game is therefore No-goal. We used the 3 main prediction models to find the validity of a ng in this Red Star vs Boulogne match.

The Monte Carlo simulation prediction model indicated a 50.86% probability for a NG outcome. The ELO Ratings model came through with a 52.30% probability for the same outccome. The third model, Poisson probabilites prediction model showed there's a 54.00% chance for a ng outcome. This Red Star vs Boulogne match has a few other bets that have been validated by all the 3 models. Keep reading to find them all.