OVER 1.5 PREDICTION All 3 major Surebet prediction models have indicated a possible over 1.5 in this Peru vs Paraguay match. Poisson prediction model shows there is a 89.04% chance for the outcome while the ELO Ratings model shows a 80.45% chance for the same. Finally, 64.39% of the Monte Carlo simulation runs for this match resulted in over 1.5. This pretty much consolidates the prediction of a over 1.5 in this game. The odds for Over 1.5 outcome on major betting sites are, on average, 1.32666666666667 with an implied bookmaker probability of 75.38%. Considering that the surebet probability for the OVER 1.5 outcome for this Peru vs Paraguay match is 77.96%, then this bet is a value bet. If you play this bet then you you gain expected value by 2.58%. The expected value for a OVER 1.5 prediction is denoted as EV(OVER 1.5) and is calculated by multiplying the amount of stake by the odds and again by the probability of winning then subtracting the result of multiplying the stake and the probability of losing. By using 100 as your sample stake, by calculating the EV as explained, we get the expected value for a OVER 1.5 in this Peru vs Paraguay match is 81.38 which is positive and therefore a good bet. Given the historical matches of these teams, it is almost clear that at least 2 goals will be scored in this match. Regardless of the low odds, I bet you might want to form a multi bet with this over 1.5 Prediction for Peru vs Paraguay. The over/under 1.5 goals tips for this match is therefore clearly, over 1.5 goals.