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LUDOGORETS RAZGRAD vs SPORTING BRAGA SURE PREDICTION

A detailed Ludogorets Razgrad vs Sporting Braga sure prediction with expert opinion, H2H matches, statistical analysis for this International Clubs, UEFA Europa League match on 21-Oct-2021

Ludogorets Razgrad

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Sporting Braga

DATE:

21 October 2021 at 19:45:00

TIME:

7:45 PM

COUNTRY:

International Clubs

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LEAGUE

UEFA Europa League

1X2 PREDICTION

HOME WIN:

36%

AVR. ODDS:

3.54

VALUEBET?

Value Bet

DRAW:

29%

AVR. ODDS:

3.44

VALUEBET?

Not a Value Bet

AWAY WIN:

35%

AVR. ODDS:

2.05

VALUEBET?

Not a Value Bet

EXPERT TIPS FOR THIS MATCH

Given the historical results of these teams, it is most likely that at least 2 goals will be scored in this match. Regardless of the low odds, I bet you might want to form a multi bet with this over 1.5 Prediction for Ludogorets Razgrad vs Sporting Braga. 



The over OR under 1.5 goals tips for this match is therefore clearly, over 1.5 goals. We used the 3 main prediction models to find the validity of a over 1.5 in this Ludogorets Razgrad vs Sporting Braga match. 


The Monte Carlo simulation prediction model indicated a 59.36% probability for a OVER 1.5 outcome. The ELO Ratings model came through with a 65.85% probability for the same outccome. The third model, Poisson probabilites prediction model showed there's a 71.44% chance for a over 1.5 outcome. 



This Ludogorets Razgrad vs Sporting Braga match has a few other bets that have been validated by all the 3 models. Keep reading to find them all. 



To find if the Over 1.5 bet is a value bet, we need to compare the implied OVER 1.5 bookmaker probability with calculated and validated Surebet probability for the same. 



The odds for this outcome are averagely 1.29411764705882 with an implied bookmaker probability of 77.27%. The calculated Surebet probability for the Over 1.5 outcome for this Ludogorets Razgrad vs Sporting Braga match is 65.55%, meaning this bet is not a value bet. 



In case you place this bet, you may be about to lose expected value by -11.72%Expected Value, EV(OVER 1.5), for a OVER 1.5 result for this Ludogorets Razgrad vs Sporting Braga match is calculated as follows: Let P(OVER 1.5) be the probability of winning this bet, P(0) be the probability of losing this bet. 



Also assuming that your stake is 100 then the Expected value is; P(OVER 1.5) * 100* 1.29411764705882 where 1.29411764705882 are the decimal odds for this outcome. 



Using this formula then you should get the expected value for a OVER 1.5 for Ludogorets Razgrad vs Sporting Braga, EV(OVER 1.5) to be 65.55% * 100 * 1.29, which translates to 50.38. This is a positive Expected Value thus further vaidating this bet mathematically.

LUDOGORETS RAZGRAD vs SPORTING BRAGA SURE PREDICTION

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GG/NG(BTTS) PREDICTION

GG(BTTS):

46%

AVR. ODDS:

1.82

VALUEBET?

Not a Value Bet

NO GOAL:

54%

AVR. ODDS:

1.89

VALUEBET?

Value Bet

OVER/UNDER 1.5 GOALS PREDICTION

OVER 1.5:

40%

AVR. ODDS:

1.29

VALUEBET?

Not a Value Bet

UNDER 1.5:

34%

AVR. ODDS:

3.16

VALUEBET?

Value Bet

OVER/UNDER 2.5 GOALS PREDICTION

OVER 2.5:

39%

AVR. ODDS:

1.98

VALUEBET?

Not a Value Bet

UNDER 2.5:

61%

AVR. ODDS:

1.74

VALUEBET?

Value Bet

OVER/UNDER 3.5 GOALS PREDICTION

OVER 3.5:

19%

AVR. ODDS:

3.47

VALUEBET?

Not a Value Bet

UNDER 3.5:

81%

AVR. ODDS:

1.3

VALUEBET?

Value Bet

MATCH STATISTICS AND ANALYSIS

LUDOGORETS RAZGRAD VS SPORTING BRAGA LATEST HEAD TO HEAD MATCHES

Currently no head to head

LUDOGORETS RAZGRAD LAST 10 MATCHES

Below are Ludogorets Razgrad's last 10 matches whose results will be part of the data needed for this game's sure bet prediction:
Ludogorets won against Tsarsko Selo Sofia (4-0) on 16/10/21
Then Levski Sofia lost to Ludogorets (2-4) on 10-Mar-2021
Ludogorets lost to Crvena Zvezda (0-1) on 30/09/21
Not surprisingly Ludogorets won against Vratsa (3-1) on 26/09/21
Spartak Varna lost to Ludogorets (0-1) on 23/09/21
Slavia Sofia won against Ludogorets (1-0) on 19/09/21
Then Midtjylland drew with Ludogorets (1-1) on 16/09/21
Ludogorets won against Varna (2-0) on 09-Nov-2021
Pirin lost to Ludogorets (1-3) on 29/08/21
In the earliest match listed here Ludogorets won against Malmo (2-1) on 24/08/21

RECENT MATCHES - AWAY TEAM

Below are Sporting Braga's last 10 matches whose results will be part of the data needed for this game's sure bet prediction:
Ufc Moitense lost to Braga (0-5) on 17/10/21
Braga drew with Boavista Porto (2-2) on 10-Mar-2021
Then Braga won against Midtjylland (3-1) on 30/09/21
Santa Clara Azores drew with Braga (1-1) on 26/09/21
Braga won against Tondela (3-1) on 20/09/21
Then Crvena Zvezda won against Braga (2-1) on 16/09/21
Pacos Ferreira drew with Braga (0-0) on 09-Nov-2021
Braga drew with Guimaraes (0-0) on 29/08/21
Once more Moreirense lost to Braga (2-3) on 20/08/21
Braga lost to Sporting Lisbon (1-2) on 14/08/21

LUDOGORETS RAZGRAD'S POSITION

Ludogorets is in position 3 with 1 points from 2 matches. They are below who have points and above Midtjylland who have 1 points.
have scored 1 goals and conceded 2 goals thereby accumulating a goal difference of -1 goals this season.

SPORTING BRAGA'S POSITION

Braga is in position 2 with 3 points from 2 matches. They are below Crvena Zvezda who have 6 points and above who have points.
Sporting Braga have scored 4 goals and conceded 3 goals thereby accumulating a goal difference of 1 goals this season.

LUDOGORETS RAZGRAD'S BEST PLAYERS

Players not available

SPORTING BRAGA'S BEST PLAYERS

Players not available

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