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JORGE WILSTERMANN vs DESPORTIVO AURORA SURE PREDICTION

A detailed Jorge Wilstermann vs Desportivo Aurora sure prediction with expert opinion, H2H matches, statistical analysis for this �Bolivia, Liga Profesional Boliviano match on 06-Aug-2021

Jorge Wilstermann

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Desportivo Aurora

DATE:

5 August 2021 at 23:00:00

TIME:

2:00:00 AM

COUNTRY:

Bolivia

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LEAGUE

Liga Profesional Boliviano

1X2 PREDICTION

HOME WIN:

63.06%

AVR. ODDS:

1.57

VALUEBET?

Not a Value Bet

DRAW:

20.68%

AVR. ODDS:

4.28

VALUEBET?

Not a Value Bet

AWAY WIN:

15.83%

AVR. ODDS:

4.98

VALUEBET?

Not a Value Bet

EXPERT TIPS FOR THIS MATCH

We used the 3 main prediction models to find the validity of a home win in this Jorge Wilstermann vs Desportivo Aurora match. The Monte Carlo simulation prediction model indicated a 74.72% probability for a Home Win outcome. The ELO Ratings model came through with a 63.18% probability for the same outccome. 


The third model, Poisson probabilites prediction model showed there's a 51.29% chance for a home win outcome. This Jorge Wilstermann vs Desportivo Aurora match has a few other bets that have been validated by all the 3 models. Keep reading to find them all. To find if the Home Win bet is a value bet, we need to compare the implied Home Win bookmaker probability with calculated and validated Surebet probability for the same. The odds for this outcome are averagely 1.57 with an implied bookmaker probability of 63.69%. 


The calculated Surebet probability for the Home Win outcome for this Jorge Wilstermann vs Desportivo Aurora match is 63.06%, meaning this bet is not a value bet. In case you place this bet, you may be about to lose expected value by -0.63%Expected Value, EV(Home Win), for a Home Win result for this Jorge Wilstermann vs Desportivo Aurora match is calculated as follows: Let P(Home Win) be the probability of winning this bet, P(0) be the probability of losing this bet. Also assuming that your stake is 100 then the Expected value is; P(Home Win) * 100* 1.57 where 1.57 are the decimal odds for this outcome. Using this formula then you should get the expected value for a Home Win for Jorge Wilstermann vs Desportivo Aurora, EV(Home Win) to be 63.06% * 100 * 1.57, which translates to 62.07. 


This is a positive Expected Value thus further vaidating this bet mathematically.After analysing all the data and compiling and comparing expert opinions on this Jorge Wilstermann vs Desportivo Aurora match, we are well convinced that Jorge Wilstermann is in better form, better motivated and has proven in the past their ability to dominate this game against Desportivo Aurora. The surebet prediction for this game is therefore a home win. 


Note that there might be even better tips you can bet on today if you can be bold enough to subscribe for VIP tips. Besides, you might want to check out the GG/NG tips given their ability to increase betting profits for many punters.

JORGE WILSTERMANN vs DESPORTIVO AURORA SURE PREDICTION

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GG/NG(BTTS) PREDICTION

GG(BTTS):

46.12%

AVR. ODDS:

1.62

VALUEBET?

Not a Value Bet

NO GOAL:

53.45%

AVR. ODDS:

2.17

VALUEBET?

Value Bet

OVER/UNDER 1.5 GOALS PREDICTION

OVER 1.5:

40%

AVR. ODDS:

1

VALUEBET?

Not a Value Bet

UNDER 1.5:

23.85%

AVR. ODDS:

4.27

VALUEBET?

Value Bet

OVER/UNDER 2.5 GOALS PREDICTION

OVER 2.5:

51.64%

AVR. ODDS:

1.53

VALUEBET?

Not a Value Bet

UNDER 2.5:

47.93%

AVR. ODDS:

2.35

VALUEBET?

Value Bet

OVER/UNDER 3.5 GOALS PREDICTION

OVER 3.5:

29.52%

AVR. ODDS:

2.68

VALUEBET?

Not a Value Bet

UNDER 3.5:

70.06%

AVR. ODDS:

1.75

VALUEBET?

Value Bet

MATCH STATISTICS AND ANALYSIS

JORGE WILSTERMANN VS DESPORTIVO AURORA LATEST HEAD TO HEAD MATCHES

Jorge Wilstermann and Aurora have met 6 times recently since 31/01/19. Below is a breakdown of those matches and the results. Note that these matches will play a big role in the Jorge Wilstermann vs Aurora prediction.
12-Aug-2020 - Jorge Wilstermann [1 : 1] Aurora
31/01/20 - Aurora [2 : 1] Jorge Wilstermann
13/12/19 - Aurora [0 : 2] Jorge Wilstermann
19/08/19 - Jorge Wilstermann [5 : 1] Aurora
04-Jul-2019 - Aurora [1 : 2] Jorge Wilstermann
31/01/19 - Jorge Wilstermann [2 : 1] Aurora

JORGE WILSTERMANN LAST 10 MATCHES

Below are Jorge Wilstermann's last 10 matches whose results will be part of the data needed for this game's sure bet prediction:
Bolivar won against Jorge Wilstermann (4-0) on 08-Jan-2021
Then Jorge Wilstermann won against Blooming (2-1) on 27/07/21
Guabira won against Jorge Wilstermann (3-2) on 22/07/21
Not surprisingly Jorge Wilstermann won against Real Potosi (3-1) on 16/07/21
Royal Pari won against Jorge Wilstermann (3-2) on 07-Nov-2021
Jorge Wilstermann won against Ceara (1-0) on 28/05/21
Then Jorge Wilstermann lost to Arsenal (1-2) on 20/05/21
Bolivar drew with Jorge Wilstermann (2-2) on 13/05/21
Jorge Wilstermann won against Always Ready (5-2) on 05-Oct-2021
In the earliest match listed here Arsenal won against Jorge Wilstermann (3-0) on 05-Jul-2021

RECENT MATCHES - AWAY TEAM

Below are Desportivo Aurora's last 10 matches whose results will be part of the data needed for this game's sure bet prediction:
Aurora lost to The Strongest (0-1) on 31/07/21
Oriente won against Aurora (1-0) on 27/07/21
Then Aurora drew with Nacional Potosi (0-0) on 21/07/21
Real Santa Cruz drew with Aurora (1-1) on 17/07/21
Aurora won against San Jose (3-0) on 07-Oct-2021
Then CD Real Tomayapo lost to Aurora (1-2) on 05-Nov-2021
Aurora won against Independiente Petrolero (3-0) on 05-Feb-2021
Aurora drew with Bolivar (1-1) on 27/04/21
Once more Blooming won against Aurora (1-0) on 04-Oct-2021
Aurora won against Guabira (2-1) on 04-Feb-2021

JORGE WILSTERMANN'S POSITION

Jorge Wilstermann is in position 14 with 12 points from 12 matches. They are below Blooming who have 14 points and above Real Potosi who have 5 points.
have scored 24 goals and conceded 31 goals thereby accumulating a goal difference of -7 goals this season.

DESPORTIVO AURORA'S POSITION

Aurora is in position 11 with 16 points from 12 matches. They are below CD Real Tomayapo who have 17 points and above Real Santa Cruz who have 15 points.
Desportivo Aurora have scored 13 goals and conceded 16 goals thereby accumulating a goal difference of -3 goals this season.

JORGE WILSTERMANN'S BEST PLAYERS

No notable players

DESPORTIVO AURORA'S BEST PLAYERS

No notable players

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