Dover vs Notts County prediction
Dover vs Notts County predictionwith match analysis, statistics and betting tips. This detailed prediction accompanies over 3 betting tips for the match. Dover vs Notts County are playing on England
Dover
DATE:
14 February 2022 at 22:45:00
Notts County
1X2 PREDICTION
EXPERT TIPS FOR THIS MATCH
After analysing all the data and compiling and comparing expert opinions on this Dover vs Notts County match, we are well convinced that Dover is in better form, better motivated and has proven in the past their ability to dominate this game against Notts County. The surebet prediction for this game is therefore a home win.
Note that there might be even better tips you can bet on today if you can be bold enough to subscribe for VIP tips. Besides, you might want to check out the GG/NG tips given their ability to increase betting profits for many punters.
We used the 3 main prediction models to find the validity of a home win in this Dover vs Notts County match.
The Monte Carlo simulation prediction model indicated a 40.67% probability for a Home Win outcome. The ELO Ratings model came through with a 40.55% probability for the same outccome. The third model, Poisson probabilites prediction model showed there's a 40.42% chance for a home win outcome.
This Dover vs Notts County match has a few other bets that have been validated by all the 3 models. Keep reading to find them all.
To find if the Home Win bet is a value bet, we need to compare the implied Home Win bookmaker probability with calculated and validated Surebet probability for the same. The odds for this outcome are averagely 2.08 with an implied bookmaker probability of 48.08%.
The calculated Surebet probability for the Home Win outcome for this Dover vs Notts County match is 40.55%, meaning this bet is not a value bet. In case you place this bet, you may be about to lose expected value by -7.53%.
Expected Value, EV(Home Win), for a Home Win result for this Dover vs Notts County match is calculated as follows:
Let P(Home Win) be the probability of winning this bet, P(0) be the probability of losing this bet. Also assuming that your stake is 100 then the Expected value is;
P(Home Win) * 100* 2.08 where 2.08 are the decimal odds for this outcome.
Using this formula then you should get the expected value for a Home Win for Dover vs Notts County, EV(Home Win) to be 40.55% * 100 * 2.08, which translates to 24.88. This is a positive Expected Value thus further vaidating this bet mathematically.
Historical data, H2H matches and results from similar and related past matches, Surebet GG prediction systems have all agreed that both teams will be able to score in this match. Both Dover and Notts County have good striking and have equally vulnerable defenses. I do not forsee a NG outcome for this game. The GG rediction for this game is both teams to score at leat one goal in this game.
We used the 3 main prediction models to find the validity of a gg in this Dover vs Notts County match.
The Monte Carlo simulation prediction model indicated a 67.67% probability for a GG outcome. The ELO Ratings model came through with a 66.28% probability for the same outccome. The third model, Poisson probabilites prediction model showed there's a 64.83% chance for a gg outcome.
This Dover vs Notts County match has a few other bets that have been validated by all the 3 models. Keep reading to find them all.
To find if the Gg bet is a value bet, we need to compare the implied GG bookmaker probability with calculated and validated Surebet probability for the same. The odds for this outcome are averagely 1.62 with an implied bookmaker probability of 61.73%.
The calculated Surebet probability for the Gg outcome for this Dover vs Notts County match is 66.26%, meaning this bet is a value bet. In case you place this bet, you may gain expected value by 4.53%.
Expected Value, EV(GG), for a GG result for this Dover vs Notts County match is calculated as follows:
Let P(GG) be the probability of winning this bet, P(0) be the probability of losing this bet. Also assuming that your stake is 100 then the Expected value is;
P(GG) * 100* 1.62 where 1.62 are the decimal odds for this outcome.
Using this formula then you should get the expected value for a GG for Dover vs Notts County, EV(GG) to be 66.26% * 100 * 1.62, which translates to 73.6. This is a positive Expected Value thus further vaidating this bet mathematically.
Given the historical results of these teams, it is most likely that at least 2 goals will be scored in this match. Regardless of the low odds, I bet you might want to form a multi bet with this over 1.5 Prediction for Dover vs Notts County. The over OR under 1.5 goals tips for this match is therefore clearly, over 1.5 goals.
We used the 3 main prediction models to find the validity of a over 1.5 in this Dover vs Notts County match.
The Monte Carlo simulation prediction model indicated a 85.78% probability for a OVER 1.5 outcome. The ELO Ratings model came through with a 84.77% probability for the same outccome. The third model, Poisson probabilites prediction model showed there's a 83.67% chance for a over 1.5 outcome.
This Dover vs Notts County match has a few other bets that have been validated by all the 3 models. Keep reading to find them all.
To find if the Over 1.5 bet is a value bet, we need to compare the implied OVER 1.5 bookmaker probability with calculated and validated Surebet probability for the same. The odds for this outcome are averagely 1.13333333333333 with an implied bookmaker probability of 88.24%.
The calculated Surebet probability for the Over 1.5 outcome for this Dover vs Notts County match is 84.74%, meaning this bet is not a value bet. In case you place this bet, you may be about to lose expected value by -3.49%.
Expected Value, EV(OVER 1.5), for a OVER 1.5 result for this Dover vs Notts County match is calculated as follows:
Let P(OVER 1.5) be the probability of winning this bet, P(0) be the probability of losing this bet. Also assuming that your stake is 100 then the Expected value is;
P(OVER 1.5) * 100* 1.13333333333333 where 1.13333333333333 are the decimal odds for this outcome.
Using this formula then you should get the expected value for a OVER 1.5 for Dover vs Notts County, EV(OVER 1.5) to be 84.74% * 100 * 1.13, which translates to 80.78. This is a positive Expected Value thus further vaidating this bet mathematically.
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GG/NG(BTTS) PREDICTION
OVER/UNDER 1.5 GOALS PREDICTION
OVER/UNDER 2.5 GOALS PREDICTION
OVER/UNDER 3.5 GOALS PREDICTION
MATCH STATISTICS AND ANALYSIS
DOVER VS NOTTS COUNTY PREDICTION HEAD TO HEAD MATCHES
DOVER VS NOTTS COUNTY LATEST HEAD TO HEAD MATCHES
Dover Athletic and Notts County have met 6 times recently since 00-Jan-1900. Below is a breakdown of those matches and the results. Note that these matches will play a big role in the Dover Athletic vs Notts County prediction.
10-Mar-2020 - Dover Athletic [1 : 0] Notts County
18/01/20 - Notts County [0 : 0] Dover Athletic
10-May-2019 - Dover Athletic [2 : 2] Notts County
00-Jan-1900 - [ : ]
00-Jan-1900 - [ : ]
00-Jan-1900 - [ : ]
DOVER'S LAST 10 MATCHES
DOVER LAST 10 MATCHES
Below are Dover's last 10 matches whose results will be part of the data needed for this game's sure bet prediction:
Dover Athletic lost to Torquay (1-3) on 02-Dec-2022
Then Stockport won against Dover Athletic (1-0) on 02-May-2022
Dover Athletic lost to Southend (0-1) on 29/01/22
Not surprisingly Dover Athletic won against Eastleigh (1-0) on 25/01/22
Solihull Moors won against Dover Athletic (5-0) on 22/01/22
Wealdstone won against Dover Athletic (2-1) on 15/01/22
Then Dagenham won against Dover Athletic (3-1) on 01-Feb-2022
Woking won against Dover Athletic (3-2) on 28/12/21
Dover Athletic lost to Dagenham (0-2) on 26/12/21
In the earliest match listed here Dover Athletic lost to Bromley (0-1) on 18/12/21
RECENT MATCHES - AWAY TEAM
DOVER LAST 10 MATCHES
Below are Dover's last 10 matches whose results will be part of the data needed for this game's sure bet prediction:
Halifax Town lost to Notts County (1-2) on 02-Dec-2022
Then Notts County won against Barnet (6-1) on 02-Aug-2022
Notts County lost to Grimsby (1-2) on 02-May-2022
Not surprisingly Bromley won against Notts County (1-0) on 29/01/22
Wealdstone drew with Notts County (0-0) on 25/01/22
Notts County won against Eastleigh (2-1) on 15/01/22
Then Kings Lynn lost to Notts County (2-4) on 01-Nov-2022
Notts County won against Wrexham (3-1) on 01-Feb-2022
Notts County won against Altrincham (2-1) on 18/12/21
In the earliest match listed here Notts County won against Southend (4-1) on 12-Nov-2021
DOVER POSITION
DOVER'S POSITION
Dover Athletic is in position 23 with -5 points from 28 matches. They are below Kings Lynn who have 15 points and above who have points.
Dover have scored 21 goals and conceded 63 goals thereby accumulating a goal difference of -42 goals this season.
NOTTS COUNTY POSITION
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