CHELSEA vs VILLARREAL SURE PREDICTION
A detailed Chelsea vs Villarreal sure prediction with expert opinion, H2H matches, statistical analysis for this International Clubs, UEFA Super Cup match on 11-Aug-2021
Chelsea
DATE:
11 August 2021 at 22:00:00
Villarreal
COUNTRY:
International Clubs
LEAGUE
UEFA Super Cup
TIME:
10:00 PM
1X2 PREDICTION
HOME WIN:
39%
AVR. ODDS:
1.72
VALUEBET?
Not a Value Bet
DRAW:
21%
AVR. ODDS:
3.41
VALUEBET?
Not a Value Bet
AWAY WIN:
39%
AVR. ODDS:
4.33
VALUEBET?
Value Bet
EXPERT TIPS FOR THIS MATCH
Historical data, H2H matches and results from similar and related past matches, Surebet GG prediction systems have all agreed that both teams will be able to score in this match. Both Chelsea and Villarreal have good striking and have equally vulnerable defenses. I do not forsee a NG outcome for this game.
The GG rediction for this game is both teams to score at leat one goal in this game. We used the 3 main prediction models to find the validity of a gg in this Chelsea vs Villarreal match. The Monte Carlo simulation prediction model indicated a 53.92% probability for a GG outcome. The ELO Ratings model came through with a 63.58% probability for the same outccome.
The third model, Poisson probabilites prediction model showed there's a 61.38% chance for a gg outcome. This Chelsea vs Villarreal match has a few other bets that have been validated by all the 3 models. Keep reading to find them all. To find if the Gg bet is a value bet, we need to compare the implied GG bookmaker probability with calculated and validated Surebet probability for the same. The odds for this outcome are averagely 1.98 with an implied bookmaker probability of 50.51%.
The calculated Surebet probability for the Gg outcome for this Chelsea vs Villarreal match is 59.63%, meaning this bet is a value bet. In case you place this bet, you may gain expected value by 9.12%Expected Value, EV(GG), for a GG result for this Chelsea vs Villarreal match is calculated as follows: Let P(GG) be the probability of winning this bet, P(0) be the probability of losing this bet.
Also assuming that your stake is 100 then the Expected value is; P(GG) * 100* 1.98 where 1.98 are the decimal odds for this outcome. Using this formula then you should get the expected value for a GG for Chelsea vs Villarreal, EV(GG) to be 59.63% * 100 * 1.98, which translates to 77.69. This is a positive Expected Value thus further vaidating this bet mathematically.
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GG/NG(BTTS) PREDICTION
GG(BTTS):
60%
AVR. ODDS:
1.98
VALUEBET?
Value Bet
NO GOAL:
AVR. ODDS:
40%
1.74
VALUEBET?
Not a Value Bet
OVER/UNDER 1.5 GOALS PREDICTION
OVER 1.5:
40%
AVR. ODDS:
1.35
VALUEBET?
Value Bet
UNDER 1.5:
17%
AVR. ODDS:
3.04
VALUEBET?
Not a Value Bet
OVER/UNDER 2.5 GOALS PREDICTION
OVER 2.5:
61%
AVR. ODDS:
2.07
VALUEBET?
Value Bet
UNDER 2.5:
AVR. ODDS:
VALUEBET?
38%
1.67
Not a Value Bet
OVER/UNDER 3.5 GOALS PREDICTION
OVER 3.5:
39%
AVR. ODDS:
3.63
VALUEBET?
Value Bet
UNDER 3.5:
60%
AVR. ODDS:
1.25
VALUEBET?
Not a Value Bet
MATCH STATISTICS AND ANALYSIS
CHELSEA VS VILLARREAL LATEST HEAD TO HEAD MATCHES
Curently no head to head
CHELSEA LAST 10 MATCHES
Below are Chelsea's last 10 matches whose results will be part of the data needed for this game's sure bet prediction:
Chelsea drew with Tottenham (2-2) on 08-Apr-2021
Then Arsenal lost to Chelsea (1-2) on 08-Jan-2021
Chelsea won against Bournemouth (2-1) on 27/07/21
Not surprisingly Man City lost to Chelsea (0-1) on 29/05/21
Aston Villa won against Chelsea (2-1) on 23/05/21
Chelsea won against Leicester (2-1) on 18/05/21
Then Chelsea lost to Leicester (0-1) on 15/05/21
Chelsea lost to Arsenal (0-1) on 05-Dec-2021
Man City lost to Chelsea (1-2) on 05-Aug-2021
In the earliest match listed here Chelsea won against Real Madrid (2-0) on 05-May-2021
RECENT MATCHES - AWAY TEAM
Below are Villarreal's last 10 matches whose results will be part of the data needed for this game's sure bet prediction:
Leeds United drew with Villarreal (2-2) on 08-Jul-2021
Leicester won against Villarreal (3-2) on 08-Apr-2021
Then Marseille won against Villarreal (2-1) on 31/07/21
Villarreal drew with Levante (0-0) on 29/07/21
Villarreal drew with Lyon (2-2) on 22/07/21
Then Valencia won against Villarreal (3-2) on 16/07/21
Villarreal won against Man Utd (11-10) on 26/05/21
Real Madrid won against Villarreal (2-1) on 22/05/21
Once more Villarreal won against Sevilla (4-0) on 16/05/21
Valladolid lost to Villarreal (0-2) on 13/05/21
CHELSEA'S POSITION
No position listed
VILLARREAL'S POSITION
No position listed
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