We used the 3 main prediction models to find the validity of a over 1.5 in this Valladolid vs Malaga match. The Monte Carlo simulation prediction model indicated a 79.58% probability for a OVER 1.5 outcome. The ELO Ratings model came through with a 75.09% probability for the same outccome. 

The third model, Poisson probabilites prediction model showed there's a 69.41% chance for a over 1.5 outcome. This Valladolid vs Malaga match has a few other bets that have been validated by all the 3 models. Keep reading to find them all. To find if the Over 1.5 bet is a value bet, we need to compare the implied OVER 1.5 bookmaker probability with calculated and validated Surebet probability for the same. 

The odds for this outcome are averagely 1.45098039215686 with an implied bookmaker probability of 68.92%. The calculated Surebet probability for the Over 1.5 outcome for this Valladolid vs Malaga match is 74.69%, meaning this bet is a value bet. In case you place this bet, you may gain expected value by 5.78%Expected Value, EV(OVER 1.5), for a OVER 1.5 result for this Valladolid vs Malaga match is calculated as follows: Let P(OVER 1.5) be the probability of winning this bet, P(0) be the probability of losing this bet. 

Also assuming that your stake is 100 then the Expected value is; P(OVER 1.5) * 100* 1.45098039215686 where 1.45098039215686 are the decimal odds for this outcome. Using this formula then you should get the expected value for a OVER 1.5 for Valladolid vs Malaga, EV(OVER 1.5) to be 74.69% * 100 * 1.45, which translates to 83.07. 

This is a positive Expected Value thus further vaidating this bet mathematically.Given the historical results of these teams, it is most likely that at least 2 goals will be scored in this match. Regardless of the low odds, I bet you might want to form a multi bet with this over 1.5 Prediction for Valladolid vs Malaga. The over OR under 1.5 goals tips for this match is therefore clearly, over 1.5 goals.