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DYNAMO DRESDEN vs PADERBORN SURE PREDICTION

A detailed Dynamo Dresden vs Paderborn sure prediction with expert opinion, H2H matches, statistical analysis for this Germany, DFB Pokal match on 05-Aug-2021

Dynamo Dresden

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Paderborn

DATE:

6 August 2021 at 21:45:00

TIME:

9:45 PM

COUNTRY:

Germany

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LEAGUE

DFB Pokal

1X2 PREDICTION

HOME WIN:

59%

AVR. ODDS:

2.43

VALUEBET?

Value Bet

DRAW:

19%

AVR. ODDS:

3.47

VALUEBET?

Not a Value Bet

AWAY WIN:

20%

AVR. ODDS:

2.81

VALUEBET?

Not a Value Bet

EXPERT TIPS FOR THIS MATCH

After analysing all the data and compiling and comparing expert opinions on this Dynamo Dresden vs Paderborn match, we are well convinced that Dynamo Dresden is in better form, better motivated and has proven in the past their ability to dominate this game against Paderborn.


The surebet prediction for this game is therefore a home win. Note that there might be even better tips you can bet on today if you can be bold enough to subscribe for VIP tips. Besides, you might want to check out the GG/NG tips given their ability to increase betting profits for many punters. We used the 3 main prediction models to find the validity of a home win in this Dynamo Dresden vs Paderborn match. The Monte Carlo simulation prediction model indicated a 74.15% probability for a Home Win outcome. The ELO Ratings model came through with a 61.56% probability for the same outccome. 


The third model, Poisson probabilites prediction model showed there's a 41.99% chance for a home win outcome. This Dynamo Dresden vs Paderborn match has a few other bets that have been validated by all the 3 models. Keep reading to find them all. To find if the Home Win bet is a value bet, we need to compare the implied Home Win bookmaker probability with calculated and validated Surebet probability for the same. 


The odds for this outcome are averagely 2.43 with an implied bookmaker probability of 41.15%. The calculated Surebet probability for the Home Win outcome for this Dynamo Dresden vs Paderborn match is 59.23%, meaning this bet is a value bet. In case you place this bet, you may gain expected value by 18.08%Expected Value, EV(Home Win), for a Home Win result for this Dynamo Dresden vs Paderborn match is calculated as follows: Let P(Home Win) be the probability of winning this bet, P(0) be the probability of losing this bet. 


Also assuming that your stake is 100 then the Expected value is; P(Home Win) * 100* 2.43 where 2.43 are the decimal odds for this outcome. Using this formula then you should get the expected value for a Home Win for Dynamo Dresden vs Paderborn, EV(Home Win) to be 59.23% * 100 * 2.43, which translates to 103.17. This is a positive Expected Value thus further vaidating this bet mathematically.

DYNAMO DRESDEN vs PADERBORN SURE PREDICTION

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GG/NG(BTTS) PREDICTION

GG(BTTS):

57%

AVR. ODDS:

1.59

VALUEBET?

Not a Value Bet

NO GOAL:

41%

AVR. ODDS:

2.22

VALUEBET?

Not a Value Bet

OVER/UNDER 1.5 GOALS PREDICTION

OVER 1.5:

40%

AVR. ODDS:

1.12

VALUEBET?

Not a Value Bet

UNDER 1.5:

16%

AVR. ODDS:

3.67

VALUEBET?

Not a Value Bet

OVER/UNDER 2.5 GOALS PREDICTION

OVER 2.5:

63%

AVR. ODDS:

1.71

VALUEBET?

Value Bet

UNDER 2.5:

36%

AVR. ODDS:

2.02

VALUEBET?

Not a Value Bet

OVER/UNDER 3.5 GOALS PREDICTION

OVER 3.5:

41%

AVR. ODDS:

3

VALUEBET?

Value Bet

UNDER 3.5:

57%

AVR. ODDS:

1.51

VALUEBET?

Not a Value Bet

MATCH STATISTICS AND ANALYSIS

DYNAMO DRESDEN VS PADERBORN LATEST HEAD TO HEAD MATCHES

Dresden and Paderborn have met 6 times recently since 23/11/12. Below is a breakdown of those matches and the results. Note that these matches will play a big role in the Dresden vs Paderborn prediction.
19/05/19 - Dresden [3 : 1] Paderborn
15/12/18 - Paderborn [3 : 0] Dresden
14/03/14 - Paderborn [2 : 1] Dresden
22/09/13 - Dresden [2 : 2] Paderborn
05-Mar-2013 - Dresden [2 : 1] Paderborn
23/11/12 - Paderborn [2 : 2] Dresden

DYNAMO DRESDEN LAST 10 MATCHES

Below are Dynamo Dresden's last 10 matches whose results will be part of the data needed for this game's sure bet prediction:
Hamburg drew with Dresden (1-1) on 08-Jan-2021
Then Dresden won against Ingolstadt (3-0) on 24/07/21
Union Berlin won against Dresden (3-0) on 17/07/21
Not surprisingly Dresden won against Jablonec (3-1) on 30/06/21
Wiesbaden lost to Dresden (0-1) on 22/05/21
Dresden won against Turkgucu Munich (4-0) on 16/05/21
Then Dresden won against Viktoria Cologne (2-0) on 05-Aug-2021
Verl drew with Dresden (0-0) on 05-Apr-2021
Uerdingen lost to Dresden (0-2) on 05-Jan-2021
In the earliest match listed here Dresden won against Duisburg (1-0) on 28/04/21

RECENT MATCHES - AWAY TEAM

Below are Paderborn's last 10 matches whose results will be part of the data needed for this game's sure bet prediction:
Paderborn drew with Nuremberg (2-2) on 30/07/21
Heidenheim drew with Paderborn (0-0) on 24/07/21
Then Paderborn won against Mgladbach (3-1) on 17/07/21
Ajax won against Paderborn (4-1) on 07-Oct-2021
Hannover drew with Paderborn (1-1) on 07-Mar-2021
Then Wurzburg drew with Paderborn (1-1) on 23/05/21
Paderborn lost to Greuther Furth (2-4) on 16/05/21
Erzgebirge Aue lost to Paderborn (3-8) on 05-Sep-2021
Once more Paderborn won against Dusseldorf (2-1) on 24/04/21
Paderborn drew with Osnabruck (2-2) on 21/04/21

DYNAMO DRESDEN'S POSITION

No position listed

PADERBORN'S POSITION

No position listed

DYNAMO DRESDEN'S BEST PLAYERS

No notable players

PADERBORN'S BEST PLAYERS

No notable players

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