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ARSENAL vs ASTON VILLA GG SUREBET PREDICTION

A detailed Rangers Fc vs Brondby If sure prediction with expert opinion, H2H matches, statistical analysis for this International Clubs, UEFA Europa League match on 22-Oct-21

Arsenal

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Aston Villa

DATE:

22 October 2021 at 22:00:00

TIME:

10:00 PM

COUNTRY:

England

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LEAGUE

Premier League

1X2 PREDICTION

HOME WIN:

64%

AVR. ODDS:

1.93

VALUEBET?

Value Bet

DRAW:

19%

AVR. ODDS:

3.59

VALUEBET?

Not a Value Bet

AWAY WIN:

17%

AVR. ODDS:

3.88

VALUEBET?

Not a Value Bet

EXPERT TIPS FOR THIS MATCH

All 3 major Surebet prediction models have indicated a possible gg in this Arsenal vs Aston Villa match. Poisson prediction model shows there is a 59.83% chance for the outcome while the ELO Ratings model shows a 58.63% chance for the same. 


Finally, 56.94% of the Monte Carlo simulation runs for this match resulted in gg. This pretty much consolidates the prediction of a gg in this game. The odds for Gg outcome on major betting sites are, on average, 1.73 with an implied bookmaker probability of 57.80%. 


Considering that the surebet probability for the GG outcome for this Arsenal vs Aston Villa match is 58.47%, then this bet is a value bet. If you play this bet then you you gain expected value by 0.66%The expected value for a GG prediction is denoted as EV(GG) and is calculated by multiplying the amount of stake by the odds and again by the probability of winning then subtracting the result of multiplying the stake and the probability of losing. 



By using 100 as your sample stake, by calculating the EV as explained, we get the expected value for a GG in this Arsenal vs Aston Villa match is 59.61 which is positive and therefore a good bet.



Given historical data, head to head matches and results from similar past matches, Surebet prediction systems and expert opinion have all converged on the conclusion that both teams will be able to score in this match, therefore validating a GG prediction (BTTS). 



Both Arsenal and Aston Villa have good strikers and have equally vulnerable defenses. It is quite unlikely that any of them will fail to score in this game.

ARSENAL vs ASTON VILLA GG SUREBET PREDICTION

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GG/NG(BTTS) PREDICTION

GG(BTTS):

58%

AVR. ODDS:

1.73

VALUEBET?

Value Bet

NO GOAL:

41%

AVR. ODDS:

1.99

VALUEBET?

Not a Value Bet

OVER/UNDER 1.5 GOALS PREDICTION

OVER 1.5:

40%

AVR. ODDS:

1.17

VALUEBET?

Not a Value Bet

UNDER 1.5:

15%

AVR. ODDS:

3.47

VALUEBET?

Not a Value Bet

OVER/UNDER 2.5 GOALS PREDICTION

OVER 2.5:

64%

AVR. ODDS:

1.79

VALUEBET?

Value Bet

UNDER 2.5:

35%

AVR. ODDS:

1.91

VALUEBET?

Not a Value Bet

OVER/UNDER 3.5 GOALS PREDICTION

OVER 3.5:

43%

AVR. ODDS:

3.14

VALUEBET?

Value Bet

UNDER 3.5:

57%

AVR. ODDS:

1.43

VALUEBET?

Not a Value Bet

MATCH STATISTICS AND ANALYSIS

ARSENAL VS ASTON VILLA LATEST HEAD TO HEAD MATCHES

Aston Villa and Arsenal have met 6 times recently since 13/12/15. Below is a breakdown of those matches and the results. Note that these matches will play a big role in the Aston Villa vs Arsenal prediction.
02-Jun-2021 - Aston Villa [1 : 0] Arsenal
11-Aug-2020 - Arsenal [0 : 3] Aston Villa
21/07/20 - Aston Villa [1 : 0] Arsenal
22/09/19 - Arsenal [3 : 2] Aston Villa
15/05/16 - Arsenal [4 : 0] Aston Villa
13/12/15 - Aston Villa [0 : 2] Arsenal

ARSENAL LAST 10 MATCHES

Below are Arsenal's last 10 matches whose results will be part of the data needed for this game's sure bet prediction:
Arsenal drew with Crystal Palace (2-2) on 18/10/21
Then Brighton drew with Arsenal (0-0) on 10-Feb-2021
Arsenal won against Tottenham (3-1) on 26/09/21
Not surprisingly Arsenal won against Wimbledon (3-0) on 22/09/21
Burnley lost to Arsenal (0-1) on 18/09/21
Arsenal won against Norwich (1-0) on 09-Nov-2021
Then Man City won against Arsenal (5-0) on 28/08/21
West Bromwich lost to Arsenal (0-6) on 25/08/21
Arsenal lost to Chelsea (0-2) on 22/08/21
In the earliest match listed here Brentford won against Arsenal (2-0) on 13/08/21

RECENT MATCHES - AWAY TEAM

Below are Aston Villa's last 10 matches whose results will be part of the data needed for this game's sure bet prediction:
Aston Villa lost to Wolverhampton (2-3) on 16/10/21
Tottenham won against Aston Villa (2-1) on 10-Mar-2021
Then Man Utd lost to Aston Villa (0-1) on 25/09/21
Chelsea won against Aston Villa (4-3) on 22/09/21
Aston Villa won against Everton (3-0) on 18/09/21
Then Chelsea won against Aston Villa (3-0) on 09-Nov-2021
Aston Villa drew with Brentford (1-1) on 28/08/21
Barrow AFC lost to Aston Villa (0-6) on 24/08/21
Once more Aston Villa won against Newcastle (2-0) on 21/08/21
Watford won against Aston Villa (3-2) on 14/08/21

ARSENAL'S POSITION

Arsenal is in position 12 with 11 points from 8 matches. They are below Leicester who have 11 points and above who have points.
have scored 7 goals and conceded 12 goals thereby accumulating a goal difference of -5 goals this season.

ASTON VILLA'S POSITION

Aston Villa is in position 13 with 10 points from 8 matches. They are below who have points and above Crystal Palace who have 8 points.
Aston Villa have scored 12 goals and conceded 12 goals thereby accumulating a goal difference of 0 goals this season.

ARSENAL'S BEST PLAYERS

Sure bet prediction, tips and even fixed matches all depend on the form of players. Below are Arsenal's players that have the potential of shaping the predictions and results for this game:

Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang - The Gabon National Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang has scored 3 goals in 7 matches and shot 2 foul kicks. He has scored - penalties. The 0.19's average goals per match is 0.43.

Alexandre Lacazette - The France National Alexandre Lacazette has scored 1 goals in 3 matches and shot - foul kicks. He has scored - penalties. The 0.15's average goals per match is 0.33.

Martin Odegaard - The Norway National Martin Odegaard has scored 1 goals in 6 matches and shot 1 foul kicks. He has scored - penalties. The 0.33's average goals per match is 0.17.

Bukayo Saka - The England National Bukayo Saka has scored 1 goals in 8 matches and shot - foul kicks. He has scored - penalties. The midfielder's average goals per match is 0.13.

Emile Smith-Rowe - The England National Emile Smith-Rowe has scored 1 goals in 8 matches and shot 1 foul kicks. He has scored - penalties. The midfielder's average goals per match is 0.13.


ASTON VILLA'S BEST PLAYERS

The following Aston Villa players are crucial in determining the results of this game:

Danny Ings - The England National Danny Ings has scored 3 goals in 8 matches and shot 2 foul kicks. He has scored 1 penalties. The forward's average goals per match is 0.38.

John McGinn - The Scotland National John McGinn has scored 2 goals in 7 matches and shot - foul kicks. He has scored - penalties. The midfielder's average goals per match is 0.29.

Anwar El Ghazi - The Netherlands National Anwar El Ghazi has scored 1 goals in 3 matches and shot - foul kicks. He has scored 1 penalties. The midfielder's average goals per match is 0.33.

Kortney Hause - The England National Kortney Hause has scored 1 goals in 3 matches and shot 1 foul kicks. He has scored - penalties. The defender's average goals per match is 0.33.

Leon Bailey - The Jamaica National Leon Bailey has scored 1 goals in 3 matches and shot - foul kicks. He has scored - penalties. The midfielder's average goals per match is 0.33.

Emiliano Buendia - The Argentina National Emiliano Buendia has scored 1 goals in 6 matches and shot - foul kicks. He has scored - penalties. The midfielder's average goals per match is 0.17.

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